$900 per share for $AMZN by 2030. I calculated a realistic stock price.
UBS analysts released a projection that three years ago would have sounded like science fiction: Amazon with $1.7 trillion in revenue and $500 billion in net income by 2030. At a standard 20x earnings multiple, that gives a market cap above $10 trillion.
For comparison – the entire US stock market $^GSPC had a combined value of about $27 trillion at the start of 2020. One company worth a third of what the whole index earns today? That deserves attention.
And it’s not just a PowerPoint from an analyst trying to get noticed. Amazon just reported Q2 2026, and the numbers support it – revenue of $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year, operating income of $27.5 billion, up 43% year-over-year. AWS, the company’s profit engine, grew 36.7% year-over-year – its fastest rate in the last eighteen quarters.
Why the UBS projection makes sense
Here’s what makes this number more than just an optimistic PowerPoint presentation.
1. AWS is accelerating, not slowing down. That’s counterintuitive – large companies typically slow as their base grows. AWS is doing the opposite. 37% year-over-year growth is the fastest pace in a year and a half. And it’s not a one‑quarter fluke – according to Jassy, Amazon already has most of its 2027 capacity booked, and partially even into 2028.
2. The AI business is no longer a side category. Amazon’s AI and chip division (Trainium, Graviton) crossed the $25 billion annualized revenue run‑rate mark and is growing at triple‑digit rates. This isn’t an experiment at the edge of the business – it’s a new leg of the table next to e‑commerce, advertising, and traditional cloud.
3. Margins are improving, not deteriorating. AWS’s operating margin rose to 39% in Q2, up 650 basis points year‑over‑year, thanks to efficiency and capacity optimization. That’s key – it means revenue growth is translating into even faster profit growth. Exactly what the UBS projection assumes: profits growing faster than revenue (from $830 billion revenue and $120 billion profit in 2026 to $1,648 billion revenue but $508 billion profit in 2030 – profits increase more than fourfold, revenue "only" doubles).
Of course, it’s not without risk. Free cash flow over the last 12 months is negative, an outflow of $7.6 billion, compared to an inflow of $18.2 billion a year earlier, due to AI and data‑center build‑out. Amazon is spending huge sums today before they pay off. That’s exactly the kind of bet that either pays off enormously, or stands as a cautionary tale of overinvestment. So far, the market believes the former.
What would it mean per share?
The $10 trillion number is very interesting, but on its own it doesn’t tell an investor much. What we all care about is the share price. So I did the math.
UBS estimates net income of $508.8 billion in 2030. At a P/E multiple of 20x earnings, market capitalization comes to 508.8 × 20, or roughly $10.18 trillion. Now we need to divide that by the number of shares outstanding.
Amazon currently has just under 10.8 billion shares outstanding, and the number is growing slightly – on the order of 1% per year due to stock‑based compensation. By 2030 that means roughly 11.1 to 11.2 billion shares. If you divide a $10.18 trillion market cap by 11.15 billion shares, you get a price of about $910 per share.
From today’s price around $230, that’s roughly a four‑bagger in less than five years.
On an annualized basis, that equates to roughly a 32% annual return.
It’s important to see what this math rests on. The 20 P/E multiple is actually a conservative estimate – today Amazon trades at a P/E between 22 and 30 depending on whether you use trailing or forward earnings. If the market values Amazon in 2030 as generously as it does today, the share price could end up higher, easily somewhere in the $1,100‑1,350 range.
Conversely, if the P/E falls to the historical average of large tech companies around 15, you’d get more like $680. So the target price is extremely sensitive to what multiple the market deems reasonable in 2030 – and that’s a variable no one knows for certain today.
How am I looking at all this?
I hold Amazon as one of my largest portfolio positions and I won’t pretend the UBS numbers leave me cold. But I want to be fair – a five‑year projection is always more of a scenario than a prediction. No one knows exactly what the AI business will look like in 2030, whether the capex boom will hit a wall of overinvestment, or whether AWS margins will start being pushed down by competition from $MSFT and $GOOG.
What keeps me calm, though, is that Amazon today isn’t a company betting on a single card. AWS is the profit engine, advertising is growing over 20% annually, AI chips are only just picking up speed, and e‑commerce is still generating cash flow, even if not as high as before due to capex. A combination of four growing table legs is a different situation than, say, a single‑product company putting everything on one bet.
I take the $10 trillion number as the upper bound of a realistic scenario, not a guarantee. But even if UBS misses the mark completely and Amazon ends up at half that projection, we’re still talking about a company that doubles or triples its value over five years.