Top experts expect up to 191% growth for this company

We all know it, we're all watching it. We're still in a slump. And I think most of us know that a downturn is a perfect buying opportunity. But beware - it's a double-edged sword. A low price can mean a perfect opportunity, but it can also, of course, mean a problem within the company itself. Twilio is a prime example of such a situation. So let's take a closer look.

Twilio may look tempting. Doesn't it?

This is not a company whose business model is somehow fundamentally incomprehensible, complex and convoluted. On the other hand, it's not exactly the "daily bread" of most of the population either. Anyone can imagine cloud services, that wouldn't be a problem. Twilio, however, works sort of in the background. So what does it even do?

Twilio's mission is to support the future of communications. Its cloud platform includes a set of application programming interfaces, or APIs (i.e., code that allows different applications to interact). Twilio also provides a number of pre-built software products, including a contact center platform(Twilio Flex) and a customer data platform(Twilio Segment). Together, these tools help brands engage customers in personalized communications across virtually any digital channel.

What's more, Twilio has every conceivable advantage. They were first to market, they are a leader in their industry.

Last year, IDC again named them the top provider of CPaaS - Communications Platform as a Service. The report specifically cited its "broad portfolio, reliability and reputation for quality" as key strengths. Twilio received similar recognition in a recent report from G2 Grid, which said it had achieved a larger market presence than any of its peers.

Not surprisingly, Twilio continues to grow. Its customer numbers have increased 15% to 275,000 in the past year, and the average customer is spending 23% more. Revenues, in turn, rose 51% to $3.4 billion. Less optimistically, the company has burned $254 million in cash over the past 12 months , but management says it will achieve non-GAAP operating profitability in 2023.

On the face of it, a stock that's been extremely punished this year
Financials are... 🤷

In Q2, Twilio organically grew revenue 33 % year-over-year to $862 million.

I know a lot of people also follow management's "body language". Specifically, the statement most often quoted here is from CEO Jeff Lawson - he says they expect there to be organic revenue growth of at least 30% per year through 2024. That sounds positive.

Quick assessments of $TWLO+1.5% have been quite proliferating on the internet lately. On closer inspection, however, I'm somewhat skeptical. Most importantly, then, I consider Twilio to be a high-risk option in the long run.

It can be said that Twilio has focused on revenue growth and R&D and has not focused on rising costs that have spiraled out of control. From the numbers, it appears that savings can be achieved very easily and quickly if management is willing to address them.

Twilio has a potentially bright future ahead of it. Management values the market opportunity in 2023 at $87 billion, and the company should benefit as more businesses look to improve customer engagement through personalized communications.

However, there is still the bogeyman of cost and, more importantly, the fact that for some reason the market-leading company has lost nearly 80% in a year.

To make this complete, I'll insert your favorite analyst predictions at the end 😜.


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Disclaimer: This is in no way an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and a few other analyses. Investing in the financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.

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