This weekend was a textbook example of how chaotic this “war-not-war” around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is. On Friday Trump reported that a deal was “almost done” and sent Vance, Witkoff and Kushner to Islamabad, but on Sunday he announced that the US Navy had stopped and fired on an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman — the first visible strike as part of the blockade of Hormuz — and threatened to “destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran” if talks collapse. Tehran meanwhile denies having agreed to key points, refuses to attend a meeting with the US in Islamabad and accuses Washington of violating the ceasefire and of “excessive and changing demands,” which is reflected in practice in Hormuz as well: a brief hint of reopening is followed by another stop; by the start of the week the strait is de facto closed again.