Milan Charvat 1h 7 min read
Why are Brazilian stocks falling? 🇧🇷 After the first round, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro was leading, and investors began betting on his victory. iShares’ Brazilian ETF EWZ surged 14%. But left-wing incumbent president Lula ultimately won by 51.8% to 48.2%. Why did the market want Bolsonaro?…
🇧🇷 NU and MELI on sale! Market panic or buying opportunity? $MELI $NU Today’s trading looks pretty wild for Brazilian stocks. Following the presidential election, which Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won once again, a sharp sell-off is underway. 📉 Nubank ($NU) – down approximately 23% in early premarket trading.…
🚨 Anthropic just filed to go public, and chip stocks ripped. The S-1 shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B vs $1.2B a year ago (+1,300%). Operating loss narrowed to -$0.7B. Compute & infrastructure ate $8.9B, 55% of revenue. Ticker: ANT on Nasdaq. Semis rallied on the filing: SOXX +3%, $NVDA +2.6%, $MU +4% intraday.…
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Google doubled its cloud business, yet still fell 9%. The market is asking who will pay the AI bill
Alphabet brought in $127.6 billion in revenue in the third quarter, 25% more than a year ago. Sundar Pichai is boasting that the company is on track for half a trillion dollars in annual revenue. Shares of $GOOG are nevertheless down more than 9% after the market closed, falling…
🚨 FED HOLDS — BUT 2 OFFICIALS WANTED A HIKE
The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% today in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The statement says inflation "remains elevated" and upgrades growth to "strong." The 10Y yield climbed to ~5.05%, and futures now price ~86% odds of a December hike.
🟢 Bull case: No surprise,…
SK Hynix $SKHY - earnings report analysis
Fundamentally, this is one of the strongest reports in semiconductor history. Revenue topped 100 bil. KRW for the first time, operating margin was 80%, and results significantly beat estimates.
Capacity is sold out through 2029, and the company will return ~100 bil. KRW (~$75 bln) to shareholders.…
The board called an offer of $60.50 per share too low this year. The market is paying less today. Earnings per share are rising, net income is falling, and a single number that most investors aren’t tracking will decide who got it wrong.
A dividend yield above 6% sounds like comfortable income that few stocks offer today. But the same number can conceal completely different businesses. In one case, a stable payout is backed by a thin capital cushion; in another, it is a variable dividend that closely tracks maritime freight rates.…
🚨 SK HYNIX $SKHY JUST POSTED THE AI MEMORY QUARTER OF THE YEAR
Record Q3: revenue ₩104.6T vs ₩98.3T est. (+328% YoY) and operating profit ₩83.3T vs ₩76.7T est. (80% margin!). Add ~₩100T in 2026 shareholder returns and a ₩20,000/share dividend. Shares +10%, Kospi +6%.
🟢 Bull case: HBM4 goes mainstream in Q4, 50%+ of 2027–28 capacity is locked under long-term deals, and management…
🏛️⚡ FED DAY: HOLD OR HIKE? ⚡🏛️
The Fed decides today at 2PM ET. Markets price ~90% odds of a HOLD at 3.75%–4.00% after September's hike. But September CPI ran hot at 3.7% (vs 3.6% est.) and the 10Y yield sits near 5%. The real catalyst is whether Chair Warsh signals a December hike, which futures already lean toward.
Then after the close: $MSFT (est. ~$4.72 EPS / $90.6B rev) and…
Visa $V beat estimates, yet its shares are falling after the results📉
Why? It’s the same old story...a more cautious outlook for 2027. Shares recently hit a new ATH, so investors simply want everything to be “just right.” But there’s a dividend increase🥳
FICO is earning more than ever, and yet it is 62% below its peak. Baidu and Pinterest are falling for the same reason: the market has stopped believing their privilege will last. But only one of them has the numbers to back that up.
Okay, not quite 😁 . But while reading the prospectus of Anthropic, the creator of the Claude AI model, at times I felt like I was reading a script for The Terminator.
BLACK S&P 500 is up by tens of percentage points this year compared with the average stock in it. Bond king Gundlach talks about a hollow tree. But the data show something missing from his warning: the narrow market is only six weeks old, and the first branch has already snapped.
✈️🚨 BOEING Q3: REVENUE BEAT, BIGGER LOSS 🚨
$BA posted a core loss of $0.34/share vs $0.21 expected, but revenue rose 4% YoY to $24.19B (est. $23.84B). Defense sales jumped 15%, free cash flow hit $464M vs ~$325M expected, and backlog reached a record $745B. Commercial jets are still losing money (-6.5% margin) while 737 output sticks at 47/month.
🟢 Bull case: Record backlog,…
Coca-Cola $KO once again confirmed in Q3 why it is one of the most reliable stocks on the market 🥤
Revenue reached 13.4 billion USD, versus an estimate of 12.92 billion (+7% year over year). Adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.91 USD, compared with an estimate of 0.88 USD (+11%). Both figures beat expectations.
But what honestly caught my attention most in the report was:…
Investors often automatically associate a large market capitalization with stability. But the market shows that even companies worth hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars can plunge by tens of percent within a few weeks, only to bounce back into the game soon afterward. Which are among the…
Debt-free, with half a billion dollars in cash and operating profit growing 61% a year. Yet Hecla Mining shares lost nearly a quarter of their value in a month. Anyone who understands why knows what the next move in silver will do to them.
U.S. electricity consumption is returning to growth after fifteen years of stagnation, with data centers as the main driver. But higher demand does not automatically mean higher profits. Who actually benefits from the boom depends on the generation mix, long-term contracts, regulation, and…
$INTC shares gained 4% yesterday. The market reacted to an optimistic outlook and the announcement of an acquisition in the quantum computing space. With Intel, you never know what it’ll get itself into next.
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research recommends buying the shares and set a price target of $125. That’s, BTW, potential upside of around 38%.
BLACK China’s AI index lost 40% without a single piece of bad news. A shift in sentiment was enough. The U.S. market has so far avoided a similar correction, even though seven companies make up more than a third of the S&P 500 and Meta spent more than it earned for the first time since 2012. So the…
On Monday, Brazil’s stock exchange plunged 13.9%. The Ibovespa index fell as much as 17% during the day, and the exchange had to halt trading for 30 minutes. The real lost nearly 9% against the dollar. It was the worst day since the COVID crash in March 2020.
Three REITs promise 5.8% to 17.1% a year, and all claim they earn enough to cover their dividends. But two of them burned through 11% to 17% of their book value in a single quarter. Which yield is paid from earnings, and which from investors’ capital?
Meta $META is turning to shareholders for cash!
$META wants to raise up to $95 billion through share issues to build AI infrastructure. The first round is expected to reach $35 billion. The stock is weakening today, as nobody likes dilution.
When I opened my portfolio today, all my Brazilian stocks were down. This isn’t a problem with one company. The market is repricing the entire country.
As the IPO approaches, more and more “skeletons” are emerging from the closet.
In its S-1 prospectus, Anthropic officially warns investors that it may not achieve profitability or sustain it in the future.
The company, whose shares will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker $ANT, reported revenue of $16.3 billion for the first half of 2026, however—more than triple its revenue for…
🚨THE SECOND WAVE OF AI IS HERE! AND THESE 3 STOCKS ARE ATTRACTIVE AGAIN!
📉 Western Digital $WDC , SK Hynix $SKHY and Applied Materials $AMAT have already delivered significant gains for investors. But after recent price declines, I believe their stocks are once again trading at exceptionally attractive prices!
🔥 All three companies could benefit significantly from continued…
Three blows in a single year and the stock 73% below its peak. Yet the company raised its dividend this year, approved $600 million in buybacks, and its cash flow jumped 47%. Who's wrong here: the market or management?
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