Vojtěch Šplíchal 5h 21 min read
Google doubled its cloud business, yet still fell 9%. The market is asking who will pay the AI bill Alphabet brought in $127.6 billion in revenue in the third quarter, 25% more than a year ago. Sundar Pichai is boasting that the company is on track for half a trillion dollars in annual revenue. Shares of $GOOG are nevertheless down more than 9% after the market closed, falling…
Why are Brazilian stocks falling? 🇧🇷 After the first round, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro was leading, and investors began betting on his victory. iShares’ Brazilian ETF EWZ surged 14%. But left-wing incumbent president Lula ultimately won by 51.8% to 48.2%. Why did the market want Bolsonaro?…
🚨 Anthropic just filed to go public, and chip stocks ripped. The S-1 shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B vs $1.2B a year ago (+1,300%). Operating loss narrowed to -$0.7B. Compute & infrastructure ate $8.9B, 55% of revenue. Ticker: ANT on Nasdaq. Semis rallied on the filing: SOXX +3%, $NVDA +2.6%, $MU +4% intraday.…
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🚨 FED HOLDS — BUT 2 OFFICIALS WANTED A HIKE
The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% today in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The statement says inflation "remains elevated" and upgrades growth to "strong." The 10Y yield climbed to ~5.05%, and futures now price ~86% odds of a December hike.
🟢 Bull case: No surprise,…
A competitive advantage that cannot be bought or quickly built is one of a company’s most valuable attributes. It shows up in pricing power, high margins, and stable cash generation even in tougher years. But even the strongest moat does not guarantee a good stock return if investors pay too much…
SK Hynix $SKHY - earnings report analysis
Fundamentally, this is one of the strongest reports in semiconductor history. Revenue topped 100 bil. KRW for the first time, operating margin was 80%, and results significantly beat estimates.
Capacity is sold out through 2029, and the company will return ~100 bil. KRW (~$75 bln) to shareholders.…
The only real estate fund in the world with Dividend King status has raised its payout for the 59th consecutive time this year. Yet the stock is down 14% from its peak, and government bond yields not seen in a quarter-century are scaring off buyers. What are you paying that premium for?
Coca-Cola raised its outlook for the third straight time, yet its stock fell. The numbers show that growth for the “American safe haven” is now driven mainly by Brazil, Mexico, and India—and Brazil’s real just lost nearly 12% in a single day.
The board called an offer of $60.50 per share too low this year. The market is paying less today. Earnings per share are rising, net income is falling, and a single number that most investors aren’t tracking will decide who got it wrong.
A dividend yield above 6% sounds like comfortable income that few stocks offer today. But the same number can conceal completely different businesses. In one case, a stable payout is backed by a thin capital cushion; in another, it is a variable dividend that closely tracks maritime freight rates.…
🚨 SK HYNIX $SKHY JUST POSTED THE AI MEMORY QUARTER OF THE YEAR
Record Q3: revenue ₩104.6T vs ₩98.3T est. (+328% YoY) and operating profit ₩83.3T vs ₩76.7T est. (80% margin!). Add ~₩100T in 2026 shareholder returns and a ₩20,000/share dividend. Shares +10%, Kospi +6%.
🟢 Bull case: HBM4 goes mainstream in Q4, 50%+ of 2027–28 capacity is locked under long-term deals, and management…
🏛️⚡ FED DAY: HOLD OR HIKE? ⚡🏛️
The Fed decides today at 2PM ET. Markets price ~90% odds of a HOLD at 3.75%–4.00% after September's hike. But September CPI ran hot at 3.7% (vs 3.6% est.) and the 10Y yield sits near 5%. The real catalyst is whether Chair Warsh signals a December hike, which futures already lean toward.
Then after the close: $MSFT (est. ~$4.72 EPS / $90.6B rev) and…
Visa $V beat estimates, yet its shares are falling after the results📉
Why? It’s the same old story...a more cautious outlook for 2027. Shares recently hit a new ATH, so investors simply want everything to be “just right.” But there’s a dividend increase🥳
FICO is earning more than ever, and yet it is 62% below its peak. Baidu and Pinterest are falling for the same reason: the market has stopped believing their privilege will last. But only one of them has the numbers to back that up.
Okay, not quite 😁 . But while reading the prospectus of Anthropic, the creator of the Claude AI model, at times I felt like I was reading a script for The Terminator.
BLACK S&P 500 is up by tens of percentage points this year compared with the average stock in it. Bond king Gundlach talks about a hollow tree. But the data show something missing from his warning: the narrow market is only six weeks old, and the first branch has already snapped.
✈️🚨 BOEING Q3: REVENUE BEAT, BIGGER LOSS 🚨
$BA posted a core loss of $0.34/share vs $0.21 expected, but revenue rose 4% YoY to $24.19B (est. $23.84B). Defense sales jumped 15%, free cash flow hit $464M vs ~$325M expected, and backlog reached a record $745B. Commercial jets are still losing money (-6.5% margin) while 737 output sticks at 47/month.
🟢 Bull case: Record backlog,…
Coca-Cola $KO once again confirmed in Q3 why it is one of the most reliable stocks on the market 🥤
Revenue reached 13.4 billion USD, versus an estimate of 12.92 billion (+7% year over year). Adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.91 USD, compared with an estimate of 0.88 USD (+11%). Both figures beat expectations.
But what honestly caught my attention most in the report was:…
Investors often automatically associate a large market capitalization with stability. But the market shows that even companies worth hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars can plunge by tens of percent within a few weeks, only to bounce back into the game soon afterward. Which are among the…
Debt-free, with half a billion dollars in cash and operating profit growing 61% a year. Yet Hecla Mining shares lost nearly a quarter of their value in a month. Anyone who understands why knows what the next move in silver will do to them.
U.S. electricity consumption is returning to growth after fifteen years of stagnation, with data centers as the main driver. But higher demand does not automatically mean higher profits. Who actually benefits from the boom depends on the generation mix, long-term contracts, regulation, and…
$INTC shares gained 4% yesterday. The market reacted to an optimistic outlook and the announcement of an acquisition in the quantum computing space. With Intel, you never know what it’ll get itself into next.
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research recommends buying the shares and set a price target of $125. That’s, BTW, potential upside of around 38%.
BLACK China’s AI index lost 40% without a single piece of bad news. A shift in sentiment was enough. The U.S. market has so far avoided a similar correction, even though seven companies make up more than a third of the S&P 500 and Meta spent more than it earned for the first time since 2012. So the…
On Monday, Brazil’s stock exchange plunged 13.9%. The Ibovespa index fell as much as 17% during the day, and the exchange had to halt trading for 30 minutes. The real lost nearly 9% against the dollar. It was the worst day since the COVID crash in March 2020.
Three REITs promise 5.8% to 17.1% a year, and all claim they earn enough to cover their dividends. But two of them burned through 11% to 17% of their book value in a single quarter. Which yield is paid from earnings, and which from investors’ capital?
Meta $META is turning to shareholders for cash!
$META wants to raise up to $95 billion through share issues to build AI infrastructure. The first round is expected to reach $35 billion. The stock is weakening today, as nobody likes dilution.
When I opened my portfolio today, all my Brazilian stocks were down. This isn’t a problem with one company. The market is repricing the entire country.
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