The endless carousel continues — just a few days ago there were reports of halting H200 production for China due to regulations and shifting capacity to Vera Rubin, and now a reversal: Nvidia $NVDA has licenses from both the US and Beijing and Chinese companies have been given the green light to buy H200s at scale. According to Reuters, players like ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent earlier received approval for hundreds of thousands of units, total orders exceed 2 million chips, and Jensen Huang at GTC confirms that H200 production for China is ramping up again and that licenses for "many customers in China" are finalized.

The whole story around export restrictions therefore looks more like a politically controlled faucet than a definitive stop — freeze for a while, redirect capacity, then allow "limited volumes" with conditions (including that the US wants a share of the revenues) while the queue of Chinese companies that urgently need these chips for their own AI grows. For NVDA the stock-wise implications are another piece of the puzzle: China is shifting from a simple growth engine to a regulation-filtered market, but it doesn’t yet look like Nvidia has completely lost it as a source of demand — trade will likely be more complicated, slower and possibly more profitable per unit due to pressure on subscriptions and special terms.