Micron pours another $250 billion into fabs 💾

Micron $MU confirmed today it will sink over $250 billion into US chip manufacturing by 2035 – that’s $50 billion more than its plan from last June. The package also includes $3 billion to strengthen the supply chain, with $500 million going to Taiwan’s GlobalWafers to kick off wafer production in Texas, plus a ten-year silicon wafer supply contract.

The market’s reaction was clear – the stock jumped 7–8%, dragging the rest of the sector with it: Applied Materials and Lam Research +7%, ARM +11%. Micron is riding the wave of AI hunger for memory chips (HBM), where demand is so strong that production lines are reportedly sold out for years.

The memory segment has historically been one of the most cyclical in all of tech – years of glut alternating with years of shortage, with margins swinging up and down accordingly. But recent developments suggest this time could be different: long-term, non-cancellable contracts with strategic customers are locking up capacity for years ahead, shifting the business from a commodity to something more stable with more predictable margins.

Do you believe Micron has truly broken its cyclical nature thanks to AI demand, or is this just temporary euphoria before another classic boom-bust cycle?