Two crashes, a strike, billions in fines. How will Boeing get back to profit from all this?

In the last quarter, Boeing increased revenue by 14 percent, reduced debt by $6.9 billion, and its order backlog hit a record $695 billion. Analysts expect a return to profit as soon as 2027, and average target prices for the shares lie 25 percent above the current level. Yet the company is still losing money, the 777X program is seven years late, and the commercial airplanes segment remains loss-making. The market is valuing Boeing as if its execution is already behind it, but the reality shows it is only just beginning.

For decades, Boeing was synonymous with American industrial dominance in the skies. Today, it is a company that has transformed from one of the most successful aerospace firms in the world into a symbol of how quickly quality failures and corporate culture can undermine even a seemingly unshakeable market position. Two fatal 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, the subsequent years-long grounding of the fleet, the incident involving a detached door plug on an Alaska Airlines flight in 2024, and chronic problems certifying new programs have shifted Boeing from market leader to a company fighting to restore the trust of regulators, customers, and investors.

Yet shares of $BA have risen in recent months, and Wall Street analysts remain surprisingly optimistic, despite the company still reporting losses and carrying debt exceeding $47 billion. This disconnect between operational reality and market sentiment lies at the heart of the question this article asks: is Boeing truly on track to sustainable recovery, or is the market underestimating the risks that still dog the company? The answer matters not only to shareholders but to the entire aviation industry, because Boeing together with Airbus forms a global duopoly in large commercial aircraft manufacturing, whose stability affects ticket prices, aircraft availability for airlines, and the competitiveness of US exports.