PayPal shares fell 80% in 5 years. Will a Stripe acquisition save the company?
The California-based payments giant is going through its toughest period since its inception. Shares are 80 percent below their 2021 peak, international expansion lags behind its domestic U.S. market, and branded checkout, once the company’s crown jewel, has been stagnating for years. Amid this comes an acquisition offer from direct competitor Stripe and Advent International, valuing PayPal at $53 billion and carrying a 28 percent premium, but the board considers it insufficient. What does this combination mean for the future value of the stock and the completion of the turnaround plan meant to restore PayPal among market favorites?
Key points
Q1 2026 revenue rose 7% to $8.35 billion, payment volume (TPV) grew 11% to $463.96 billion, but dollar transaction margin increased only 3%.
Shares have fallen more than 80% from the all‑time high of $308 in July 2021, and market capitalization dropped from $360 billion then to a low this year of around $36 to $41 billion.
Stripe and Advent International are offering $60.50 per share, i.e. over $53 billion and a 28% premium to the market price, but PayPal’s board called the bid insufficient.
PayPal is estimated to hold about 47% of the online payments market, but in the key U.S. mobile wallet segment Apple Pay leads with a 57% share and has effectively overtaken it in checkout.
Analyst price targets range from $47 to over $100 per share, with a prevailing “Hold” rating, reflecting uncertainty about the acquisition outcome rather than conviction about a clear direction.
PayPal stock $PYPL has fallen more than 80 percent from its summer 2021 all‑time high, and the company that was once the symbol of the digital payments revolution is now searching for its next shape. In mid‑July 2026, Stripe and private equity fund Advent International came with a joint acquisition bid of more than $53 billion, or $60.50 per share. PayPal’s board called the offer inadequate, but talks are likely to continue. What drove the collapse of one of the hottest fintech stocks on the market, how does the company really make money, and does a takeover by a direct competitor stand a chance of success?
The pandemic boom, the 2021 peak, and the decline
The Covid years: rocket‑like growth
The Covid‑19 pandemic was a period of extraordinary expansion for PayPal. The shift of consumers from cash and in‑store payments to online shopping brought the company more than $21 billion in revenue in 2020 and a net addition of over 72 million active accounts, ending the year at 377 million, with PayPal. Growth continued in 2021, when transaction revenue increased by $3.5 billion, or 17 percent, and active accounts climbed to 403 million by mid‑year. Under then‑CEO Dan Schulman, total payment volume (TPV) roughly quintupled from $288 billion to $1.36 trillion between 2015 and 2022.
Metric | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
Revenue | over $21 bn | transaction revenue +17% (+$3.5 bn) |
Total active accounts | 377 mn | 403 mn (mid‑year) |
Net new accounts | +72 mn | – |
Peak on July 23, 2021 and the harsh reality check
PayPal shares hit an all‑time high around $308 on July 23, 2021, catapulting the company to a market capitalization of roughly $360 billion at the then share count. At the time, management set highly ambitious goals: double active accounts to 750 million by 2025 and boost revenue to $50 billion. The reality was far more modest.
Metric | 2025 target (set 2021) | 2023 reality |
|---|---|---|
Active accounts | 750 mn | 426 mn (−2% yoy) |
Revenue | $50 bn | $29.8 bn (+8%) |
Free cash flow | double | $4.2 bn (−18%) |
Moreover, the company gradually lost its privileged position with eBay $EBAY, which shifted to other payment processors, pushing PayPal toward greater reliance on Venmo and Braintree – segments with significantly lower margins than the classic branded checkout. The combination of missed targets and a changing business mix sent shares into one of the deepest slumps among large tech names, as documented by the stock price history on Macrotrends. At one point this year, market capitalization fell as low as $36 to $41 billion, roughly a tenth of the 2021 peak.
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