Shares of American Express $AXP are down 29% since the beginning of the year, which at first glance looks dramatic. But as is often true in the markets: it's times like these that long-term opportunity can lurk. For AXP remains a company with a strong brand, a loyal customer base, and stable revenues that are less recession-sensitive than those of its competitors.

• Average cardholder spending: $25,000 per year
• Low charge-off rate: below 2%
• Creditworthy clients = less likelihood of shortfalls in the event of a recession
• 66% of revenue comes from fees (not interest) - an advantage at a time when people are cutting back on credit
• Own payment network = higher margins, control and synergies
• Dividends up 110% in the last 10 years
• Buybacks: in 2024, the company bought back $5.4 billion of stock
• Reduced the number of shares outstanding by 21% in a decade

Lower share price $AXP = more efficient buybacks = higher earnings per share (EPS)

Market capitalization

~$162 billion

Dividend yield

1,26 %

Expected revenue growth

+10% per annum

The stock is now much cheaper relative to its historical earnings, and with the potential for further growth.

For investors thinking in terms of years (not weeks),$AXP offers a very interesting mix:

• Strong fundamentals
• Valuations at levels last seen during a pandemic
• Proven ability to withstand crises thanks to a premium clientele and a differentiated business model

If you believe the current uncertainty won't last forever, $AXP can be a quality "value play" in a sector that is often overlooked.