Intel shares jumped more than 8% after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple is seriously considering shifting part of its M-series chip production to Intel. If confirmed, the move would mark a major turning point not only for Intel but for the entire semiconductor landscape. Apple is one of the world’s most demanding and prestigious customers, and regaining its trust would signal that Intel’s manufacturing ambitions are finally becoming credible again.
The report comes at a decisive moment. Intel is trying to revive and reposition its foundry business, which generates over $4 billion per quarter but continues to trail far behind the company’s product division. Even so, Intel is determined to compete with TSMC and Samsung on the global stage. Should Apple choose Intel Foundry as early as 2027, it would serve as a powerful validation that the company’s technological overhaul is beginning to pay off.
Why a potential collaboration with Apple is so crucial
Kuo states that Apple $AAPL wants for future M-series chips to use Intel's $INTC process 18A-Pwhich is an improved version of the upcoming 18A technology. The move wouldn't mean that Apple is abandoning TSMC $TSM - it will remain a major supplier - but that Apple needs a second source of manufacturing, especially for the MacBook Air and iPad Pro.
From Intel's perspective, several points are important:
- Apple never outsources production of its most technologically important chips to weak players.
- A successful collaboration would prove that Intel can produce high-end ARM chips for the most demanding clients.
- It would open the door to other large customers who have so far chosen TSMC.
In other words, it's not just about the contract. It's about reputation.
New leadership and big investments are changing Intel beyond recognition
With the departure of Pat Gelsinger and the arrival of CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has been radically transformed. The company has raised capital, received government support and attracted key investors, including Nvidia and SoftBank, who together have invested $7 billion to develop its foundry infrastructure.
Fundamental changes:
- The US government now owns about 10% of Intel
- Tan has significantly accelerated the development of manufacturing processes
- the company finally got 18A prototypes to real customers after years
- Intel stopped promising and started delivering
These factors are behind the stock's dramatic rise - +113% over the past 12 months.
Comparison with current leaders: Intel not yet catching up, but catching up
Despite the current euphoria, the reality is stark: Intel is still far behind Nvidia and AMD in the AI race. Nvidia dominates the accelerator market with a capitalization of over $4.4 trillion and AMD is aggressively gaining ground in server processors.
Lisa Su said at AMD Analyst Day:
- Targeting 50% share in data centers within 3-5 years
- 40% share in client processors
- AMD's long-term belief that it can take market share from Intel on a sustained basis
So Intel is running a race where it must succeed both technologically and reputationally.
Why Apple is coming in now
There are several reasons that Apple is considering Intel after years of TSMC dominance:
- The effort to diversify production outside of Taiwan
- the need for more capacity for next-generation ARM chips
- good in-house design experience - Apple doesn't want to deal with the technology constraints of foundry partners
- Intel has reportedly significantly improved revenue and process stability
Although production is not scheduled to begin until 2027, a decision has yet to be made now.because Apple is planning chip generations 2-3 years in advance.
What this means for investors
If Apple chooses Intel as the second supplier of M-series chips, it will:
- Intel's biggest reputational win in more than a decade
- long-term revenue from a premium contract (MacBook + iPad)
- massive pressure on TSMC
- a signal to other OEMs that Intel is back in the game
Why Apple needs a second chipmaker
While Apple has long relied on TSMC as its exclusive M-series and A-series chipmaker, the world around it is changing dramatically. Rising geopolitical risks in the Taiwan region, extremely high demand for 3nm and 2nm manufacturing capacity, and the increasing technical demands of products in the Mac and iPad segments mean that Apple can no longer build its product cycle on a single supplier. A second reliable partner isn't just a convenience - it's a strategic necessity if Apple wants to maintain its pace of innovation and stability of supply.
Moreover, with the explosive growth of AI models running directly on devices, there is a growing need for massive computing architectures that have very narrow limits in terms of power efficiency. Thus, Apple is planning for future generations of chips even earlier than today and needs to ensure that it will have sufficient manufacturing capacity regardless of what TSMC's priorities are. Intel, if it indeed adheres to the 18A/18A-P roadmap, may represent exactly the type of insurance policy that will allow Apple to risk bigger technology leaps without worrying about inadequate production lines.
So the reasons Apple is actively seeking a second partner are not short-term. They are:
- Diversification of risk
- ensuring long-term capacity stability
- a better negotiating position vis-à-vis TSMC
- faster innovation of the next generation M-series
- protection against future geopolitical shocks
If Apple's choice of Intel is confirmed, it will mean that the company is finally offering a competitive technology platform after years - and Apple believes it enough.
Who stands to gain and who stands to lose from the collaboration
The potential Apple-Intel partnership isn't just a tech event. It is a tectonic shift across the entire chipmaking segment that could redistribute power, capital and technological know-how. To understand who actually benefits from this collaboration and who can unleash some of their influence, it is worth keeping an eye on the four main players:
Intel
Gains the most.
- A reputational leap that no marketing campaign can buy
- access to one of the world's most demanding customers
- A strong signal to other clients - especially Qualcomm, Amazon, Google or Meta
- long-term revenue from premium chip manufacturing
Apple
Winning quietly.
- Builds a diversified supplier landscape
- Increases pressure on TSMC, which may lead to more favorable pricing and priorities
- Gains greater flexibility in innovation planning
- Reduces the risk of product delays - especially key for MacBook Pro
TSMC
Not losing position, but losing exclusivity.
- Loses its status as the only chipmaker for Apple
- May affect long-term contracts and capacity allocation
- Pressure to increase efficiency and revenue
AMD and Nvidia
Indirect impact.
- Once Intel gains more prestigious foundry customers, it will have more resources to invest in its own products
- AMD may cease to be Intel's only challenger in processors
- Nvidia, on the other hand, is seeing Intel's strength in the manufacturing segment - which may rewrite the competitive dynamics in AI chips after 2027
Overall: Intel is the biggest winner. TSMC is the most under pressure. Apple is strengthening its position as king of supply chains.