With Nvidia $NVDA it once again shows how large a geopolitical risk today hangs over even the strongest technology stories. Sales of H200 AI chips to China are practically frozen — not because there isn’t demand, but because even nearly two months after the formal approval of exports it’s unclear under what conditions, if any, they will pass U.S. security reviews. Chinese customers are therefore preferring not to place orders and are waiting to see how the whole process plays out.

To me, it’s a good reminder that investors in Nvidia today are buying not only AI growth but also the political stability of U.S.–China relations. In the short term this can mean a loss of revenue or a delay in realization; in the long term it mainly means greater uncertainty about how much of Chinese demand will actually translate into results. The fact that Chinese alternatives don’t yet match the H200’s performance helps Nvidia, but the regulatory brake is stronger than the technological lead.

So my question isn’t whether Nvidia has a top-tier product — it does. It’s whether the market at the current price sufficiently reflects that part of the AI story may remain constrained by politics and licensing. Do you see this as a temporary complication, or a structural risk that would warrant a larger discount in valuation?