Chinese automakers are heading to the US – and in my view this is a topic that could significantly shake up the American EV market in the coming years.
Currently imports are blocked by a 100% tariff, but if brands like BYD $BY6.F , Geely (Zeekr, Lynk & Co) or others were to build factories directly in the US, that barrier would effectively fall. President Trump has already hinted that if they produce on American soil and hire local workers, the administration won’t object. China now manufactures a third of all cars in the world and exports over 8 million vehicles a year, and in electric vehicles BYD has already surpassed Tesla globally. If some of that capacity starts to flow into the US, competition will intensify dramatically.
For American consumers this would mean more choice and likely pressure on prices – the average price of a new car in the US is around $50,000, while the average export price of a Chinese car is roughly $19,000. The question is, who will bear the cost? Tesla $TSLA , Ford $F , GM $GM ? Or will the market expand so much that everyone gets their share?
I personally see this as a potential structural pressure on the margins of American manufacturers – but also as an accelerator of EV adoption. How do you see it? Is the entry of Chinese brands into the US a threat to the stocks of traditional players, or a catalyst for the whole sector?
I think this will have a positive impact on consumers. Traditional automakers will be in trouble. They really haven't had it easy over the past few years. They've simply fallen behind on technology, and now they're paying the price with low margins just to remain at least somewhat competitive.
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I already hold a lot of shares of $BY6.F in my portfolio and I'm currently down about 30%, so this change would be great and I'd probably increase my position.
If Chinese EVs start being sold in the US, it will change a lot of things and I think Musk will be angry 😄. Trump won't be president forever, and at some point this scenario will simply happen.