It is tempting to reduce ASML to a single argument: the company dominates the most advanced lithography. But the stock does not move on technological leadership alone. It moves on the investment rhythm of a small set of customers and on how aggressively they expand capacity for the next node.

That is why the late-year signal mattered. The discussion shifted from general AI excitement to a concrete indicator: €38.8bn in orders, consistent with planning that is speeding up again for the next generation of fabs. When orders start to confirm the capex cycle, ASML stops being a “quality hold” and starts being priced as a multi-year growth compounder again.

Top points of analysis

• Orders jumped to €13.2bn in Q4 2025, of which EUV was €7.4bn - the type of signal that typically outpaces sales by several quarters.

• Backlog reached €38.8bn.

• The firm targets 2026 revenues of €34-39bn at gross margins of 51-53%, while the customer investment cycle continues to be fed by AI and more demanding production…