Nvidia after the results: great numbers, but a share price drop. What might happen next?

After the Q4 FY2026 results were released, I, like most investors, expected consolidation around $200 or a move toward $210–$215. Instead, there was a sharp decline and the stock closed the day at approximately $184.89 (-5%).

(The lower chart also shows after-hours and pre-market trading (24/5).)

What actually happened? Nvidia once again reported an exceptionally strong quarter:

Revenue $68.1B (+73% YoY), above market expectations (~$65.9B)

Adjusted EPS $1.62 (vs. $1.53 expected)

Data Center segment at a record $62.3B

BUT — the stock still fell. Main reasons in my view (trying to find causes looking in the rearview mirror):

Extremely high expectations: Nvidia is priced almost to perfection. “Great” isn’t enough—the market wants “exceptional.”

Concerns about future AI capex: Hyperscale companies are investing enormous sums in AI infrastructure, and investors are starting to question whether this pace is sustainable long-term.

The outlook didn’t provide a fresh catalyst: Guidance was solid but didn’t offer anything that would significantly raise already high expectations.

Profit-taking: The stock had run up into the results, so some investors simply took profits.

Possible scenarios for the coming weeks:

1) Optimistic scenario Holding above $180 and a return above $195–$200 could open the way back to $210–$220, especially if strong demand for Blackwell chips is confirmed.

2) Base case (most likely) Consolidation in the $175–$195 range over the next few weeks until a new catalyst arrives (e.g., the GTC conference or another outlook).

3) Negative scenario If concerns about AI investment intensify, the stock could test $160–$170. A break below $170 would indicate a deeper correction.

My approach: I remain growth-oriented for the long term—Nvidia still holds a dominant position in AI infrastructure. Short-term, however, I expect higher volatility and I would personally consider buying on a drop below $170.

What do you think? Are you adding on this dip, or waiting for even lower prices?

An English version of this post is available on my profile at www.etoro.com. If you want to follow me there or copy my USD portfolio, I’d be very happy.