They are still waiting for bigger discounts and don't need to buy anything right now anyway, because a stock like $CVX (one of their largest positions) has risen by 30%.

I agree, but that huge cash pile at $BRK-B serves as a safety cushion for a recession. On the other hand, it's true that a bit of buying activity wouldn't hurt the stocks right now.

They’re certainly not holding it because of some 10% drop — they would have used that 20% decline from a year ago. So if they’ve held it until now, only a fall in interest rates could push them to pour it into the market before the next black swan arrives. But that drop probably won’t happen anytime soon, because Donald is actively stoking the flames of inflation, whether through his claims or by spreading chaos around the world that drives energy prices up. And if they’ve assessed that, if ever, a black swan is likely to arrive under Donald Trump’s administration — together with a worsening US economy and colossal debt forcing the government to raise revenues (but not through taxes, since that would be political suicide) — they’ll just wait and then buy everything they undoubtedly already have on their list.

In the next few days I'll put together a full overview of the current market situation and I'll break it down there as well. It doesn't necessarily have to be bad...