After 38 days of war and with two hours left until the deadline, Trump managed to secure a ceasefire!

What happened in the markets and what does it mean for your portfolio?

WTI oil plunged within hours from $117 to just under $94 per barrel, a drop of more than 16% in a single session. Brent fell to approximately $91. S&P 500 futures immediately jumped by more than 2.5%, Dow futures added 1,000 points and Nasdaq 100 futures shot up nearly 3%.

The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran has been ongoing since February 28, 2026, when the U.S. military launched Operation Epic Fury. Over 38 days U.S. forces struck approximately 7,800 targets in Iran and carried out over 8,000 combat sorties. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil production flows, was effectively closed from early March. Maritime traffic all but stopped, and tankers refused to enter the narrow strait for fear of Iranian attacks.

Pakistan acted as mediator

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif played a key role, asking Trump for a two-week delay to his ultimatum while also urging Tehran to open the strait "as a gesture of goodwill."

Iran ultimately agreed and presented a 10-point peace plan that includes, among other things, a coordinated transit through the Strait of Hormuz under the supervision of Iranian armed forces, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region, the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damages. Trump described the plan as "a usable basis for negotiations." Peace talks are scheduled to begin on Friday, April 10 in Islamabad.

Israel also supported the ceasefire and pledged to halt bombing of Iran.

What does this mean for markets and investors?

The energy sector gained nearly 38% in the first quarter of 2026. But with the potential reopening of the strait, the cards are being reshuffled. Oil giants like $XOM and $CVX, which had benefited from tight supply, will face price normalization. Conversely, airlines such as $DAL and $UAL immediately strengthened, as jet fuel futures began to plunge.

Be careful though of false optimism. The two-week ceasefire likely means two more weeks of status quo, with only a minimal number of tankers passing through. Real restoration of shipping will take at least two months, experts say. U.S. oil is, even after Tuesday's drop, still more than 70% higher than at the start of the year.

Equity indices led by the S&P 500 are currently 7.6% above this year's low and only 3.1% below their ATH. Will the rally continue, or will prices get "stuck" again after the peak they reached at the end of last year and the beginning of this year?