Super Micro $SMCI is trying to calm regulators and investors: after three people connected to the company were accused of violating export controls (at least $2.5 billion worth of AI servers with Nvidia chips allegedly flowed to China via Taiwan and Southeast Asia), it has launched an independent investigation and an internal review of its entire trade compliance program. The company itself has not been charged so far; it has removed the individuals in question (two placed on forced leave, one dismissed, co-founder Liaw resigned from the board) and put independent board members in charge of the probe, who hired lawyers from Munger, Tolles & Olson and forensic accountants from AlixPartners — so this is a “major” crisis response, not a cosmetic audit.

For shareholders, this means the narrative of “pure growth on the wave of AI servers” is now burdened by an additional legal and reputational layer: it will be investigated whether this was the excess of a few individuals or whether the company systematically benefited from these sales to China and underestimated export control risks. Until there is clarity, SMCI will face heightened risk of further actions by authorities and investors (lawsuits, potential fines), which could, in the short term, outweigh otherwise strong demand for its AI servers.


These problems will take several years to resolve, and on top of that no one will want to run the company, so it will be hard to find a new CEO.

Fortunately I didn’t invest in it, but I think there were already plenty of signs and issues earlier that suggested it was risky.

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