🚨Why did I start accumulating gold in my portfolio?
In recent weeks I've become a bit more interested in gold. My target was the area around $4,000 per ounce, where I'd like to gradually build positions.
✌️The risk/reward ratio for gold is starting to improve – for indices, most of the optimism (AI, earnings, strong economy) is already priced in.
👉So why now? - It all comes down to bonds‼️
When the US 10-year yield approaches 4.6%, it's tough for gold – it carries no interest, no coupon. Opposing it is a bond that pays a decent yield in dollars.
Add a stronger dollar + fear of a second wave of inflation because of oil🛢️
People are therefore more willing to enter bonds than stocks, where they can get a decent 4.6% risk-free yield.
👉My thesis: the 10-year yield is near a local peak (~4.7%) and will gradually turn down, maybe to 4.25% - 4.15%
💰High yields themselves slow the economy – more expensive mortgages, pricier corporate debt, more cautious banks.
When real yields start to fall, gold will get some room✨
At the same time, I think there's room for gold to slip a bit. But will it keep falling in the future?
Personally, I don't think so. What do you think?