I wouldn’t frame it as a bet on a near-term “reversal” so much as a valuation + fundamentals setup.

The common thread across INTU, CRM, NOW, ORCL and ZS is that I think the market has become overly selective on software: AI disruption is being priced more aggressively than the actual impact on durable FCF and enterprise spending. If growth stabilizes, margins keep expanding and AI starts becoming a monetization tailwind rather than just a threat, the multiple compression can reverse quickly.

So the concentration is intentional: I’m betting that the current software pessimism is too extreme relative to the quality of these businesses. AECOM is there specifically as the non-software diversifier.

On options activity, I’m not relying on any unusual flow as the thesis. The key catalyst for me is earnings/guidance showing that the feared slowdown isn’t materializing.