Vistra $VST has shed almost 10% over the past month, and I want to add context, because I hold the stock with an average price of $144 and my thesis hasn't changed.
I built the position on a simple idea: electricity demand from AI data centers is growing faster than new generation capacity is being added. Vistra has a mix of nuclear, gas, and batteries that lets it deliver power instantly, and that's a fairly scarce commodity in this cycle.
The current drop is a reaction to Q2 results. Revenue slightly below analyst estimates. Operationally, however, the company accelerated, EBITDA rose 31% year over year, and the 2026 outlook remained unchanged. So in my view, it's short-term disappointment in one metric, not a challenge to the business model.
That's why I continue to hold the position and plan to add in the $128-133 range. I see no reason to change my thesis as long as the fundamentals don't change.
Have you also bet on any energy company?
