📉 INTUIT $INTU = UNDERVALUED COMPANY, BUT CERTAINLY NOT HEALTHY! ❌
Intuit has another quarter behind it in which it beat Wall Street expectations. At the same time, after a significant drop, the stock has reached a valuation that I already find quite interesting.
Still, I have one fundamental problem.
👉 When I look beneath the surface of the results, and especially at the expectations for the individual business segments, I see a slowdown on several fronts. And that's exactly what I don't like about a long-term investment.
📊 First, the most recent quarter:
🟢 Revenue: $4.35 billion, +14% YoY ➡️ expectations: ~$4.27 billion
🟢 Adjusted EPS: $4.03 ➡️ expectations: ~$3.58
🟢 Online Ecosystem: +17%
🟢 QuickBooks Online Accounting: +20%
🟢 Credit Karma: +16%
🟠 TurboTax: +3%
So at first glance, a very solid result. Intuit beat expectations on both revenue and earnings.
⚠️ But I'm much more interested in where the company is heading next.
For FY2027, management expects total revenue growth of only 9–10%.
And if we look deeper:
🟠 TurboTax: expected growth of only 2–3%
🟠 Consumer: +4 to 6%
🟠 Credit Karma: +11 to 13%
🔴 Mailchimp: -1 to 0%
And that's exactly the thing that keeps turning me away from Intuit.
It's not that the company has stopped growing or had bad results. The problem is the trend.
If I invest in a software company for the next 5–10 years, I ideally want to see healthy growth across its main products and gradual acceleration, or at least a stable growth rate.
But with Intuit, we're starting to see the exact opposite.
Some parts are slowing down, others are practically stagnating, and Mailchimp, for example, is having trouble growing at all.
And that's not what a healthily growing company looks like, in my opinion.
💰 Yet it's precisely the valuation that makes the whole Intuit case more interesting.
After a significant price drop, the stock seems undervalued to me. If Intuit continues to increase profit and generate strong cash flow, the current price may look very good in hindsight.
But a low valuation alone isn't enough for me.
I'd much rather buy a company where I see healthy growth across its business segments than a company that is cheap but where more and more segments are gradually slowing down.
And that's exactly why Intuit remains out of my portfolio for now.
I'm not saying it's a bad company. On the contrary – QuickBooks is still a very high-quality asset, the company is highly profitable, and the current valuation may already offer interesting potential.
But when I look at the whole picture, I simply don't trust Intuit enough to invest in it right now.
Intuit | Is a big comeback ahead? 🚀 (appreciation of +20%)
https://www.youtube.com/embed/cNljtvZrK5c💬 What do you think? Is the slowdown in individual segments only temporary, or could it already point to a deeper problem at Intuit?