Sell-side Fed calls are still moving slowly. 🐢📉

After Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, only a handful of banks formally flipped toward a September hike. BNPP just joined that group and now pencils in two hikes this year.

As of 9/10:

- Sept hike: BofA (+75), Barclays, BNPP, Deutsche Bank, SocGen, UBS 📈

- Dec hike: JPM

- Dec cut: Jefferies

- Hold / 2027 cut: everyone else (Citi, GS, MS, HSBC, Wells, RBC, Nomura, etc.) ⏸️

Compare that to May, when a large share of the same list still had 2026 cuts on the books. The forecasts are catching up — but they’re catching up late. Markets have already priced more of the hawkish shift than the published house views have.

Friday’s CPI is now the data point that either ratifies the hike call or gives the inertial majority another month. 👀📊

#Fed #FOMC #Rates #JacksonHole #CPI #Inflation #Warsh