Bulios Sentiment Index: the mood of the US market in one number
The index measures whether fear or greed currently rules the US stock market. It has six components, each tracking a change of mood against the recent past: index momentum, market strength and breadth, volatility, the flight into bonds and the junk bond spread. It is computed from FRED and Yahoo Finance data, with no estimates and no manual input.
History since 2024
What it says today
Optimism. The index climbs, breadth improves, nobody wants to sit out. 23 % of the history sits at or below today's value.
Selling regardless of price. Historically the most common place for the market to find a bottom.
Caution prevails; money leaves stocks for bonds and cash.
Neither fear nor euphoria. The market waits for the next data.
Optimism. The index climbs, breadth improves, nobody wants to sit out.
Euphoria. The band where the following months tend to return below average.
Index components
Each component scores 0 to 100; the index is their mean.
What it measures
The index tracks six expressions of mood that prices can measure: how far the S&P 500 sits from its 125-day average, how close the equal-weight RSP index is to its one-year high, whether the broad market or only its top rose over the last 20 days, how the VIX compares with its 50-day average, whether stocks beat Treasuries over 20 days, and where the high-yield spread sits inside its one-year range.
Each component scores 0 to 100 and the index is their plain mean. It measures change, not levels: a calm market with a low VIX is not greedy, it is normal. Greed begins when the mood improves faster than usual.
How to read it
The index is a contrarian tool. Extreme fear has historically preceded above-average returns over the next three to twelve months, extreme greed below-average ones. It does not say when the market turns, only that the room for surprise is larger on one side.
Greed lasts for months in a bull market. Selling just because the index passed 75 was a mistake in 2017, 2021 and 2024 alike. The component breakdown is more useful: when the index stays high while breadth and junk bonds weaken, an ever narrower group of companies is carrying the market.
When it failed
Sentiment indexes fail where mood is not the cause of the move. The Covid crash of March 2020 pushed every such index into extreme fear within two weeks, and the bottom came before anyone could act on it. In 2022 the index repeatedly showed fear and the market kept falling for another six months, because the Fed raised rates regardless of mood.
The Bulios Sentiment Index lacks the put/call component CNN uses; CBOE does not publish it freely with history. The history starts in 2024 because FRED publishes only three years of the high-yield spread and a year goes to the moving averages.
How to read market indicators
The seven indicators in the Indicators section say how expensive, frightened or tired the market as a whole is. What the bands mean, why none of them times the market, and how to combine them with the Fair Price Index.
Learn moreTerms in the glossary
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About Bulios BlackMethod and source
- Momentum: S&P 500 against its 125-day average, -5 % scores 0, +5 % scores 100.
- Strength: the RSP ETF (equal-weight S&P 500) against its one-year high, -10 % scores 0, the high scores 100.
- Breadth: RSP return minus SPY return over 20 days, -3 pp scores 0, +3 pp scores 100.
- Volatility: VIX against its 50-day average, +30 % scores 0, -30 % scores 100.
- Safe haven: S&P 500 return minus the IEF ETF over 20 days, -5 pp scores 0, +5 pp scores 100.
- Junk bonds: the ICE BofA high-yield spread inside its one-year range, the high scores 0, the low scores 100.
- The index is the plain mean of the six components, computed up to the last day for which both FRED and Yahoo Finance data are closed.
Source: Bulios, from FRED and market data · Updated September 16, 2026
Frequently asked questions
Other indicators
The indicators describe the market as a whole from public data. They say where the market stands against its history, not what it does next month, and each of them has failed before. They are not investment advice. Learn more