VIX: the fear index and the expected volatility of the S&P 500
The VIX says how large a swing in the S&P 500 option traders expect over the next 30 days. A reading of 20 means an expected annual volatility of 20 %, roughly 1.3 % a day. The long-term average is around 19; the record close is 82.7 from 16 March 2020.
History since 1990
What it says today
Ordinary nervousness. Most of the time since 1990 the VIX sat right here. 47 % of the history sits at or below today's value.
The market expects no large swings. Long quiet periods, in which stocks most often rise.
Ordinary nervousness. Most of the time since 1990 the VIX sat right here.
Protection against a decline is getting expensive. Markets are on the front pages.
Sharp daily swings both ways. February 2018, August 2024, April 2025.
Crisis level: autumn 2008, March 2020. Lasts days to weeks, not months.
Where it stood at key moments
| Moment | Value | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Dot-com bubble peak (March 2000) | 23.3 | Nervous |
| Post-bubble low (October 2002) | 42.1 | Panic |
| Pre-crisis peak (October 2007) | 16.1 | Normal |
| Financial crisis low (March 2009) | 49.7 | Panic |
| Covid crash low (March 2020) | 61.6 | Panic |
| Bear market low (October 2022) | 33.6 | Fear |
| Today | 17.1 | Normal |
What it measures
CBOE computes the VIX from the prices of S&P 500 options expiring in about 30 days. The more investors pay for protection against a decline, the higher the implied volatility and the VIX. It is not a measure of past swings but the price the market pays for insurance right now.
The index has existed since 1993, the current method since 2003, with history back-calculated to 1990. Peaks: 80.9 on 20 November 2008 and 82.7 on 16 March 2020. Low: 9.1 in November 2017.
How to read it
The VIX moves against the S&P 500: a 3 % drop in stocks usually lifts the VIX by 20 to 40 %. Spikes above 30 come fast and fade just as fast; the median return below 20 takes a few weeks. A high VIX has historically been a better moment to buy than to sell.
The ratio to its own average is more useful than the level. A VIX at 18 after a month at 12 means rising nervousness; a VIX at 18 after a week at 35 means calm returning. The VIX futures curve adds a second dimension: when the near contract trades above the far one, the market expects stress now, not later.
When it failed
The VIX is not a leading indicator. In 2007 it stayed under 20 until July while credit markets were already cracking, and in 2017 it spent the whole year under 12, which many read as a warning of a crash. No crash came; the S&P 500 added 19 %.
Conversely, the jump to 37 in February 2018 was not the start of a bear market but the technical collapse of products betting on low volatility. August 2024 sent the VIX above 60 in a single day on the unwinding of yen carry trades; two weeks later it was back under 20.
How to read market indicators
The seven indicators in the Indicators section say how expensive, frightened or tired the market as a whole is. What the bands mean, why none of them times the market, and how to combine them with the Fair Price Index.
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About Bulios BlackMethod and source
- Source: CBOE, daily closes via FRED (series VIXCLS).
- Bands follow the usual CBOE and Wall Street split: under 15 calm, 15 to 20 normal, 20 to 30 nervous, 30 to 40 fear, above 40 panic.
- The average and percentile are computed over the full history since 1990.
Source: CBOE via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) · Updated September 16, 2026
Frequently asked questions
Other indicators
The indicators describe the market as a whole from public data. They say where the market stands against its history, not what it does next month, and each of them has failed before. They are not investment advice. Learn more