A summary of the news over the last few days around the US.
Recession, recession, recession. We hear it over and over again, even if you plug your ears. I've been hearing it a lot lately, so let's see what the situation is. Recent statements from economic strategists.
Joseph Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management: "The scenario for the coming recession will be more like the recession of the early 1990s, with our central scenario being a 1-2% GDP drawdown."
JPMorgan Chase chief strategist Marko Kolanovic: "We expect a more challenging backdrop for equities... given the slowing economy and likely recession starting in 4Q23/1Q24."
Baupost Group CEO Seth Klarman: "The Fed's goal is to reduce the heat in the economy and one way to do that is to trigger some sort of recession... so maybe it's early 2024."
Now, economic data from the U.S. has shown a resilient economy that, with luck, could eventually defy those predictions -->
Consumer confidence rose more than expected, reaching its highest level since January 2022; the share of respondents expecting a recession fell by four percentage points (though it is still high, at 69.3%).
The housing market, which is generally the first indicator of a downturn, also showed surprising strength. New home sales in May rose 12.2% from April - economists had expected a 1.2% decline. Home prices rose 1.3% month-over-month in April, according to the Case-Shiller index, a closely watched indicator.
Demand for durable goods , which are typically large purchases such as televisions and transportation equipment that require long-term payments, accelerated 1.7% in May. That's faster than April's 1.2% increase and much more than the Dow Jones estimate of a 1% decline.
All of this data shows that the American consumer is not yet succumbing to higher interest rates and a (seemingly) weaker economic outlook. And if the expectation of Chief Investment Strategist Chris Senyek of Wolfe Research that "the U.S. consumer will be the No. 1 driver of the economic outlook" proves correct, then this consumer strength could allow the U.S. economy to bounce back from the recession, despite a slew of votes.
S&P 500
^GSPCJust be cool, if anyone is fed up with the mixed messages, take it with a grain of salt. When we go down, enjoy the sales and shop the discounts. In the meantime 😁 It's great to see the green months so far since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, even though the market is showing strength, watch out for buying at the peaks. Personally, I'm acting like I'm not selling profits yet and holding. I'm not doing much buying right now, just small buys into companies like $DIS-0.6% $O+1.2% $WPC+0.3% $ENB-0.8% or $CVS-0.1% then I find nicely carved out Buffett's Top10 stocks like $BAC-1.2% or $OXY-0.9% where I'm also considering buying. However, as has also been mentioned here, watch out for the REIT sector where office space is heavily represented. Have a good day and I look forward to your views. 😊
The companies you listed have been on sale for a long time. I guess I'm fine with this situation, I'll just keep shopping cheap. I bought another $PFE+1.3% today. Thanks for the recap!
I'm the same way, only I'm buying shares at the moment. Tech but I'm either gradually selling off or just holding. As you write, if we go down we buy well, if not we enjoy even bigger gains. Just don't fall for the media messages of "recession, crash is coming" and the like.
I wouldn't hold on to those predictions too much, looking back at 2022, the predictions for this year are absolutely wrong, and they won't be right this time either.