SEAGATE: THE STEALTH LEADER

Analyst Erik Woodring calls Seagate stock $STX as "too attractive to ignore" - despite the company often being overlooked in the context of fast-growing tech titles (AI, cloud, cybersecurity). Reasons:

  • Valuation: shares of $STX trade at just 7.5 times forward EPS, which is low even in the context of value tech companies
  • Demand for storage will grow with the rise of AI, edge computing, cloud and IoT
  • Strong position in data centers - market expects dramatic growth in the amount of data that needs to be stored and managed

Strengths of Seagate $STX:

Low P/E

Investors still don't appreciate the growth potential

Free cash flow (FCF)

Company regularly generates strong cash flow

Technological leadership

Advanced HDD/SSD technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR)

Partnerships

Key position in hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud)

Seagate $STX is a major supplier of disk storage for data centers, which are experiencing a boom due to:

  • Exponential growth of AI training models (which generate massive data volumes)
  • Cloud migration of companies around the world
  • Data backup, redundancy and security

Additionally, HAMR technology allows for dramatically increased disk capacity without increasing physical size, which is key to data center efficiency.

  • Industry cyclicality: HDD and SSD demand fluctuates with IT investment cycles
  • Competition: Western Digital's main rival and the growing SSD segment (Samsung, Micron)
  • Slow response from retail investors: Seagate is not a "sexy" AI play, so growth may be slower than it deserves

Seagate is an undervalued driver of the data boom that:

  • Benefiting from growth demand for storage
  • offers a nice price-to-earnings ratio
  • has a technological edge in data recording
  • generates stable cash flow and dividends

For value and technology-minded investors $STX an interesting combination of defense and growth.


I don't care much for these small companies and would rather include the $MU in my portfolio.

It's interesting, and if this stock isn't already under the radar of investors, this could be a great time to buy.

I would be very careful about the valuation of "commodity" technologies like memory and disks. When P/Es seem low, companies in general can be at the top of the cycle and vice versa. I would review historical price movements vs valuations before buying.

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