The European Union is preparing a new customs rule for low-cost shipments from e-tailers such as Shein and Temu from 1 July, and the three largest global carriers - DHL, FedEx and UPS - are now warning that the pace of change could disrupt logistics right at the EU's borders. They warn that the combination of the new flat-rate duty and complex data requirements cannot be caught up as quickly in practice, and risk holding up shipments, including some medical supplies. From their perspective, it makes sense to introduce a simple first step and postpone the more complex parts of the reform until the legal framework and technical readiness are clear.
In a letter to European finance ministers, the management of DHL Express Europe, FedEx Europe and UPS EMEA write that the new rules introduce a level of complexity that cannot reasonably be implemented by 1 July. They warn that without a "stable and workable legal framework" there is a real risk of delays to shipments at EU borders - and that this will not just affect low-cost fashion parcels, but also deliveries to which the day-to-day running of businesses and parts of the healthcare sector are linked.
What the EU wants to change and why
The new customs rules target a surge in cheap parcels from Chinese e-shops that take advantage of exemptions for low-value shipments. Today, many orders are "broken up" into small packages below the limit to avoid duty or VAT. The EU therefore plans to:
introduce a flat duty of €3 on low-value shipments
tighten data requirements for shippers and carriers
better track the fair value, origin and flow of goods
The aim is to reduce tax and customs evasion, level the playing field for European sellers and better control what flows into the EU and in what volume. The problem, logistics firms say, is timing and implementation - not the idea of greater control.
What DHL, FedEx and UPS say
In a letter to EU finance ministers, top executives from the three logistics giants propose a compromise approach:
Introduce only a simple flat duty of €3 on low-cost shipments from 1 July
postpone the more complex parts of the reform (extended data requirements, IT connectivity, process details) until the legal framework is fully in place and systems are tested in practice
They argue that:
the new data requirements are so complex that they cannot be implemented in real time across Europe
in the current state, there is a high risk that shipments will 'hang at the border' because customs and freight forwarders' systems will not be able to transfer and process data correctly
for some types of goods (e.g. some medical supplies), this could cause disruptions
In other words: the big players are not saying "no" to regulation, but "slow down and do it in two steps or it could block traffic".
What are the risks to the European supply chain
Should the EU insist on full implementation of all elements of the reform by one date without delay, there are several practical implications:
Border delays - The flood of cheap parcels from Asia is now huge and often automated. Any outage or delay in data interfaces can quickly lead to queues of shipments waiting for data to be completed or manually checked.
Reaching beyond "Shein and Temu" - While the new regime focuses on low-cost e-commerce packages, it will technically affect the entire ecosystem - including shipments of smaller components, consumables and some of the medical and lab shipments that are often in the low-end today.
Pressure on small e-tailers and logistics companies - Big players like DHL $DHL.DE, FedEx $FDX and UPS $UPS will eventually get the hang of it. The most vulnerable will be smaller logistics companies and e-tailers that don't have a team of customs and IT specialists. For them, a step change in the rules could mean both costs and loss of competitiveness.
Why this is a warning especially for Europe
There is a wider theme behind all this: Europe is trying to regulate the flow of cheap goods from Asia more tightly, but at the same time is extremely dependent on the smooth running of global supply chains. Any "overreach" in setting customs rules could mean:
short-term shortages or price increases for some goods
a tightening of the screws on Chinese e-shops, but ultimately more red tape for European firms
higher demands on digitalisation and data at all links in the chain
What DHL, FedEx and UPS are indirectly saying to the EU is: yes, regulating cheap imports makes sense, but if done too quickly and too complexly all at once, it may do more harm than good for Europe in the short term.
Who stands to gain from the new rules
It is not only "who loses", but also potential winners.
European e-tailers and bricks-and-mortar retailers, who are now losing the price war with Chinese platforms as they benefit from tax exemptions.
Local logistics players who specialise in intra-EU shipping where customs duties and complex data do not play such a role.
Companies that produce or supply software for customs declarations, compliance and data integration (the IT layer around logistics).
What smaller carriers and e-shops will have to do
DHL, FedEx and UPS can handle it - but what about the rest of the market?
What specific steps do the smaller carriers need to take: modifying IT systems, integrating with customs APIs, training staff on new data requirements.
What this means for small e-tailers importing goods from Asia: more administration, need to keep better records of value and origin, possibly need for external customs agents.
The risk that some small businesses simply give up - and the market becomes even more concentrated.