Trump announced an alleged deal between Apple and Intel before either company had confirmed it. Intel’s stock jumped more than 10% today. So what can investors expect?
This morning , a single post on the social media platform Truth Social was enough to send Intel’s stock up more than 10% within minutes . Donald Trump announced that Apple $AAPL had reached an agreement with Intel $INTC to design and manufacture chips in the United States. The market reacted immediately. Intel became one of the day’s most actively traded stocks, and its market capitalization rose sharply within a few hours, reaching an all-time high of around $700 billion.
However, there is one catch. Neither Apple nor Intel has confirmed the existence of such an agreement. Apple declined to comment on the report, and Intel stated that it would not comment on any potential negotiations with Apple. The news about one of the most closely watched events in the semiconductor industry thus did not come from the companies themselves, but from the U.S. president.
A President Interested in Growth
Last year, the U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel as partof its efforts to support the domestic semiconductor industry. According to estimates at the time, this stake was worth approximately $9 billion. Thanks to the dramatic rise in the stock price, its value has since climbed to tens of billions of dollars.
Trump himself pointed this out in his post. He noted that the government acquired the 10% stake in exchange for supporting the company and highlighted the sharp rise in its market value. At the same time, he posed a rhetorical question: when was the last time a president made so much money for American taxpayers?
Under normal circumstances, such a situation would spark a debate about a conflict of interest. The president publicly supports a company in which the government holds a significant stake, and his statements have a demonstrable impact on the stock price. When the government acquired its stake, many economists pointed out that this was an unusual link between the government and a private company. Today’s trading showed why.
“When I took over, they were like a burning trash can.”
Howard Lutnick, U.S. Secretary of Commerce
What Did Apple Promise?
Even if the negotiations between Apple and Intel are confirmed, their actual scope remains unclear for now. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon believes that they are more likely to involve smaller, less critical components rather than key chips for iPhones or Macs.
According to him, Intel will first have to prove that it can manufacture processors at the cutting edge of technology and in large volumes. Only then could it secure more significant contracts.
Even in an optimistic scenario, this does not mean that Apple would move the main production of its chips from Taiwan to the United States in the foreseeable future. Today, TSMC $TSM handles the majority of production, and its position remains exceptionally strong. A potential collaboration with Intel would likely represent a first trial step, the results of which might not be evident until 2027 or 2028 at the earliest.
Just a few hours before Trump’s post, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that the company is facing rising costs for memory chips and that further price increases for its products may be unavoidable. Moving production to the United States would likely drive costs even higher.
Intel’s Turnaround Is Real
Intel is indeed undergoing one of the most dramatic turnarounds in its modern history. The company’s stock has risen by more than 460% over the past twelve months, and its market capitalization has surpassed $600 billion.
The foundations for this turnaround were laid by former CEO Pat Gelsinger, who changed the company’s strategy and began building a foundry business focused on manufacturing chips for external customers. Current CEO Lip-Bu Tan is continuing this strategy, cutting costs and actively securing new contracts.
In addition to Apple, there is also speculation about collaboration with Google $GOOG and other tech giants. Furthermore, two external factors have significantly helped Intel. The explosion in demand for AI chips has increased the need for manufacturing capacity across the entire industry, and TSMC is beginning to reach the limits of its capacity. As a result, major tech companies are seeking alternative suppliers, and Intel is among the few companies in the world that can offer state-of-the-art manufacturing processes.
Another positive sign was the announcement thatthe new 18A-P process has entered the risk production phase—the final step before mass production. The company promises approximately 9% higher performance with the same power consumption.
“Intel will, of course, have to prove its capabilities before it secures major contracts. But the first step is always the hardest, and it seems the company has just taken it.”
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein
Where Business Ends and Politics Begins
Intel has made real technological progress, is gaining new customers, and its operating results are improving. These are all legitimate reasons why investors are beginning to trust the company again.
Nevertheless, it turns out that a single statement by the CEO regarding an agreement—which the companies themselves refuse to confirm—can significantly move the stock price.
Politics, media influence, and the ability to shape expectations are also playing an increasingly important role. And when the stock price is driven by someone who also has a direct stake in its rise, separating facts from actual results is much more difficult than it used to be.