At first glance, this stock is a trap. Accounting profit has fallen year-over-year, the net margin is below 2%, the P/E ratio is approaching 130, and the stock price has fallen by roughly 45% over the past year. If you were just using a stock screener, you’d cross it off in a second. But it’s precisely in this discrepancy—between what the income statement shows and how much cash the business actually generates—that the entire investment thesis lies. This company is an alternative asset manager whose actual earning power is almost invisible in its reported net income, because it is swallowed up by non-cash write-downs from acquisitions, stock-based compensation, and an ownership structure where a large portion of economic profit formally flows outside of reported net income.

The story of the past twelve months, however, is mainly about sentiment. The market has lost confidence in the entire private credit segment, and this company—which has roughly half of its assets under management in…