The world’s fastest-growing mega-cap company posted its best quarter yet: $82 billion in revenue over three months, $45 billion in net income, and networking revenue that tripled year-over-year. The stock fell 1.5% that evening. The entire year of 2026 is exactly like this: while memory chips and inference startups are driving the semiconductor sector to record profits, Nvidia, a company that is likely to exceed $200 billion in net income this year, has returned 4 percent to shareholders since January—less than a risk-free U.S. Treasury bond.
Meanwhile, the forward P/E ratio for fiscal year 2029 has fallen to 12—a valuation typically reserved for companies in decline, not for those growing 85% year-over-year. The market has implicitly bet on an AI collapse. The question is not whether this could happen. The question remains whether the market is right, or whether this overestimation of risk presents an opportunity that, for a company of this caliber, won’t come around twice.