Grab took over Southeast Asia. Why does the market still refuse to value it?
Revenue, EBITDA, and user numbers at all-time highs, a raised outlook, and a $750 million share buyback. And yet the stock is a quarter lower than at the start of the year. The answer to that contradiction doesn't lie in the headlines, but in the gap between reported and operating profit, in a loan book that has tripled in twelve months, and in a March shareholder vote that almost nobody noticed.
Key points
Grab reported a net profit of $235 million for the second quarter. Operating profit stood at $19 million.
The loan portfolio grew by 197% year-on-year to $2.3 billion.
Since February, the company has announced acquisitions worth more than a billion dollars, one of them in the US.
The eighteenth consecutive quarter of growing adjusted EBITDA. The stock is 45% below its annual high.
In March, shareholders voted to double the voting power of Class B shares.
On Monday, after the close of US markets, Grab Holdings $GRAB published its second-quarter results, and it was a parade of records. Revenue rose by 22% to $997 million against a consensus of $990 million, adjusted EBITDA by 54% to $168 million, and the number of monthly transacting users reached 54 million. Earnings per share of $0.06 beat the estimate of $0.01, though that estimate was built by only two analyst firms. Management raised the full-year revenue outlook from $4.04–$4.10 billion to $4.10–$4.15 billion and the adjusted EBITDA outlook from $700–$720 million to $720–$740 million. On top of that, the board approved a buyback of its own shares for another $750 million.
The market reacted positively; the stock added around 4% after hours to roughly $3.82. But even after that jump, it holds true that the stock closed Monday at $3.67, that is roughly a quarter lower than at the start of the year, when it stood around $5, and about 45% below the annual high of $6.62 from last September. Compared to the price at which the stock started trading upon its market debut in December 2021, it is less than a third.
During 2026, the contradiction between what the company reports and what the market pays for it has widened to dimensions that demand an explanation. The usual answer—that the market dislikes Southeast Asia or that money is flowing out of emerging markets en masse into US AI names—doesn't fit this year. Indonesia's GoTo Group $GOTO.JK, a direct competitor in the region's largest market, reported its first two profitable quarters in a row this year on revenue that was 28% higher. So the problem is probably not the region.
The explanation lies elsewhere, and it is more honest to look for it directly in the statements and in the minutes of the general meeting. Over the last twelve months, Grab has quietly rebuilt its center of gravity. The company, which most investors hold as a ride-hailing and food-delivery platform, now operates three digital banks, holds a loan portfolio of $2.3 billion, and in July bought a US investment app. Its reported profit, meanwhile, hardly comes from operations, and the decision-making power within the company narrowed further this March.
So, is today's investor still buying the app they think they are buying?