Weekend Intelligence: The Best Week in the Last 3 Months

The week began with relief – a called-off strike against Iran sent oil lower and pushed indices in the US and Europe to new highs. But it ended with a reminder that the US labor market is cooling faster than expected, and that hasn't made the Fed's decisions any easier. Meanwhile, it became clear that in the AI sector, even record results may no longer be enough: AMD and Palantir delivered numbers, and the market reacted in its own way.

Weekend Intelligence is an exclusive analytical report published once a week and available only to Bulios Black members. Members receive it automatically every Saturday morning by email – in full length, including specific scenarios and market implications. Permanent access to the report is obtained through Bulios Black membership.

America lost 23 thousand jobs. It didn't open the door to rate cuts

The most important news of the week came only on Friday. Non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, while the Dow Jones consensus had expected an increase of 83,000, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. But the futures market did not respond by betting on easing – it merely pulled the probability of a September rate hike from 57% to 43.9%.

The key lies in the revisions and what the number actually measures. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, with June at a mere 20,000. The average monthly gain over the last twelve months thus fell to 34,000. The spring strength has effectively evaporated from the data.