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📅 Weekly overview

Earnings season is already winding down, so this week will be a bit calmer. From corporate earnings, I'll be mainly interested in Target, Lowe’s, Walmart and Deere & Co., which will also give us an interesting look at the health of the American consumer and economy.

🏭 Monday

The week will start quietly from an earnings perspective. From macro data, the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be particularly interesting, offering another look at the health of American industry.

🏠 Tuesday

We have data from the US housing market, specifically new construction and building permits. In addition, industrial production and capacity utilization will arrive, giving us a fairly decent picture of the current state of the US economy.

🛒 Wednesday

Before the market opens, Target $TGT and Lowe’s $LOW will report earnings.

For Target, I'll be mainly interested in American consumer behavior, revenue and margin trends. Lowe’s will offer a look at household spending on renovations and housing, which are still affected by high interest rates and the real estate market situation.

In the evening, one of the main events of the week awaits us – the minutes from the last Fed meeting. It will be interesting to see how much the Fed discussed the future path of rates and how individual members view inflation and the labor market.

💰 Thursday

Before the market opens, Walmart $WMT and Deere & Co. $DE report.

Walmart will probably be the most interesting company of the whole week for me. The results can show us quite well how the American consumer is currently doing and whether they are starting to save more. For Deere, I'll be mainly watching demand for agricultural machinery and management's outlook.

From macro data, new jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will arrive.

📊 Friday

Significantly calmer and no major results from my perspective are on the agenda.

For me, Wednesday and Thursday will be the most interesting. Target, Lowe’s and especially Walmart will give us a pretty good picture of the American consumer, and we'll also get the Fed minutes and more economic data.

What will you be watching this week? And are you waiting for any of these results for a potential purchase?

A community member's personal view, not investment advice. Community Guidelines

KJ

Retailers' earnings are something I'm looking forward to. I'm curious to see how it turns out. We'll be discussing it tomorrow at 7 PM on the stream :)

RP

You really nailed Monday, and if Tuesday and Wednesday go the same way, thanks, you can pack it up.

TK

I would add that on Friday we have a significant macro event that could disrupt the expected “calmer” session.

The Japanese statistics office will release July inflation at 8:30 Japan time, so for us actually already in the night from Thursday to Friday.

Core CPI is expected at +1.8% YoY

compared to +1.6% in June, so the second month of acceleration.

This means the market assigns roughly an 80% probability to a September rate hike.

Today, August 18, the Japanese 10Y yield rose as high as 2.945%, the highest level since 1996. The two-year JGB reached 1.70%, also a level not seen since the mid-90s.

This means that even before the CPI itself, the market is significantly overpricing the trajectory of Japanese rates.

So if inflation surprises with even higher growth on Friday, it is likely that the yen will strengthen, Japanese bond yields will rise further, and the interest rate differential between US and Japanese bond yields will narrow -> all of this threatens the yen carry trade and thus has spillover to the US stock market.

Moreover, some US stocks are already not helped by the fact that the 10-year US bond yield is back above 4.7%.

MI

Thank you for the addition, which events will you be following during the week?

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