JPMorgan expects 64% growth in SpaceX. But profit rests on a single service
Record revenue, 92 percent growth, a bank promising further share price gains. And beneath it all, a company that lost $541 million in a single quarter and poured $15.8 billion into its operations. Three separate businesses under one roof, but only one of them makes money. The question for investors isn't whether SpaceX is changing the world—in many ways it is. It's whether that world can be bought for $1.43 trillion when two of the company's three engines are still just burning cash.
Key points
In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX increased revenue by 92 percent to $7.81 billion, but lost $541 million and invested $15.8 billion in just three months.
Of the three divisions, only Starlink is profitable, delivering an operating profit of $1.66 billion. The space division lost $542 million, and the artificial intelligence division lost as much as $1.26 billion.
JPMorgan raised its price target to $240, which from the current level implies more than 64 percent upside. However, it bases this on an earnings estimate only for 2028.
The company has completed the largest IPO in history, raising about $85 billion, and holds about $100 billion in cash, but a valuation of around $1.43 trillion corresponds to roughly 69 times revenue.
Musk promises a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030 and claims the goal is “practically certain, even if the company does nothing.” But the reality is that almost all profit today rests on a single service.
When the world's most famous private company opened its books for the first time, the market got exactly what it expected, and at the same time something that scared it. On one hand, numbers most companies can only dream of—revenue growing 92 percent a year and the Starlink satellite internet, which has become a real money machine. On the other hand, a breathtaking bill for ambition. In a single quarter, SpaceX invested nearly $16 billion and still ended in a loss.
SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. It's actually three distinct businesses glued together. The first launches rockets and builds the Starship, which is supposed to one day carry people to Mars. The second operates Starlink, the satellite internet that now connects twelve million households worldwide. And the third, the newest and most expensive, is a bet on artificial intelligence, within which the company rents computing power to giants like Google and builds its own models. Each of these three businesses would be a huge company on its own. Together they form something with no equal on the stock market.
The catch lies precisely in that combination, and it's why the stock is so passionately disputed. Only one of those three engines makes money today—Starlink. The other two, rockets and AI, burn cash, in the tens of billions. The whole optimistic story, including JPMorgan's promise that the stock has more than 64 percent upside, rests on the assumption that these two cost pits will one day become as profitable as Starlink.