Buyer offers $35 per share, the stock trades at $27. Decision due September 9
Hapag-Lloyd is offering $35 in cash for ZIM, and shareholders approved it with 97 percent of the votes. Yet the stock still trades about a fifth lower. What's missing is approval from the Israeli government, which holds a golden share in the company. Eight authorities will submit their positions on September 9, and according to Israeli media most are opposed. If they say no, the buyer pays not even a dollar in breakup fees.
Key points
Hapag-Lloyd is offering $35 in cash for each ZIM share. The market is paying roughly 27.5 for it.
Shareholders approved the deal with 97 percent of votes already on April 30. One signature is missing: that of the Israeli government.
According to local media, most of the eight Israeli authorities are opposed, and they submit their positions on September 9.
In the second quarter, Pacific volume jumped 20 percent, and the company beat estimates that had expected a loss.
There is one sentence in the contract that means if Israel rejects the deal, shareholders get nothing extra.
When German Hapag-Lloyd announced in February that it would buy Israeli container shipping company ZIM $ZIM for $35 per share in cash, it looked like one of those deals where an investor just watches the calendar. A premium of 58 percent over the previous day's closing price. A price 126 percent higher than the unaffected level of $15.50 from early August 2025, when nobody knew about the sale. The board voted unanimously. Two and a half months later, shareholders approved the offer with 97 percent of votes.
Almost four months have passed since then, and the stock still trades around $27.5. That is $7.5 less than what the buyer promised to pay, roughly 155 crowns per share. A discount of 21 percent on a deal where the contract is signed and shareholders have voted is not normal nervousness. It is the market's bet that the deal may not close at all.
The difference from ordinary arbitrage is who actually decides. In most acquisitions, the last hurdle is the antitrust authority, and the question is how many routes or terminals the buyer will have to sell. Here it is different. The Israeli state holds a so-called golden share in ZIM, a special stake with veto rights over a change of control. And according to Israeli media, most of the eight ministries and authorities that are to take a position on the transaction are against it.
On top of that, Israeli businessman Haim Sakal made his own offer of $37.50 per share. But it came a week after the shareholder vote, so it became more of an interesting footnote than a real alternative. For now.
And one more thing: ZIM has not stopped operating. In the second quarter it beat estimates that had expected a loss, Pacific volumes jumped by a fifth, and management confirmed its outlook for the second half of the year to be significantly stronger than the first. So what exactly are you buying today when you buy ZIM? A bet on a decision by one Israeli authority, or a container shipping company that is just getting back into shape?