Casinos are breaking records, and billionaires are offering huge sums for them. So why are their stocks falling?
Barry Diller wanted to buy all of MGM Resorts in June for 48,30 USD per share. Today it trades at 29 USD, and Wynn Resorts is in a similar position. Yet both companies are reporting record quarters. What do private investors see that the stock market doesn’t?
Key points
Barry Diller offered 48,30 USD per share for MGM Resorts in June; today, you can buy it for just under 29
Wells Fargo cut its MGM price target from exactly the offer price to the level where the stock trades today
Wynn reported a record quarter, with earnings per share doubling, yet its stock is still just a few percent above its yearly low
The project in the Emirates has become 600 million USD more expensive and its opening has been delayed; half the increase was caused by the February conflict with Iran
MGM will send roughly a billion dollars a year to Osaka, Japan; the first money won’t come back until 2031 at the earliest
Four months that erased more than 40% of the value
On June 1, 2026, an offer the casino industry hadn’t seen in a long time landed on the board of MGM Resorts International $MGM. Billionaire Barry Diller’s People Inc., which already held roughly 27% of the shares, offered 48,30 USD per share in cash for the rest of the company. The stock soared to a yearly high of 51,59 USD as the market bet the offer would rise further.
On September 23, Diller withdrew the offer. The stock lost 11% in a single day and then kept falling. On Monday, October 20, it closed at 28,90 USD. A company that one of America’s most experienced dealmakers was willing to pay 48 dollars for can now be bought for just under 29—a discount of more than 40%.
Wynn Resorts $WYNN is experiencing the same thing without a billionaire in the lead role. A record second quarter, earnings per share doubled, and yet the stock is at 77,45 USD, just a few percent above its yearly low of 73,07 USD and 43% below its yearly high.
This creates a strange gap. Private buyers are willing to pay significantly more for casinos than the stock market: besides Diller, there’s Tilman Fertitta, who is taking over Caesars Entertainment for 31 USD per share. Meanwhile, the public market is selling both companies as businesses whose best years are behind them. Someone is wrong.