🚨 BRAZIL SHOCK: Lula's comeback sends Brazilian assets into freefall
Lula won a 4th term with 51.78%, the first round-one loser to win a runoff since 1988, and markets had priced in a Bolsonaro win.
📉 $EWZ -19.6% overnight
💱 Real futures -9.9% → ~R$5.56/USD (from R$5.01)
🏦 Petrobras ADR -13% | Itaú -12.7% | Bradesco -12.3% | Vale -4%
⚠️ Brokers warn of a possible circuit breaker at the B3 open
🟢 Bull case: Overnight liquidity is thin and moves may overshoot; Brazil is still cheap, Vale is holding up, and a credible fiscal signal from Lula could spark a sharp relief bounce.
🔴 Bear case: The whole Bolsonaro rally unwinds, fiscal-risk premiums widen, rate-cut bets disappear, and JPMorgan's -21% scenario comes into play.
Is this a generational EM dip or a falling knife? 👇
$EWZ $PBR $ITUB $VALE $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOG $BTC
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