MARKET DROPS BEFORE THE U.S. ELECTIONS? I’M BUYING.
I’ve been getting a lot of questions in recent days. Markets are falling, and many of you are asking whether the declines will get even deeper. I understand, so I’ll explain how I see things and what I’m doing.
💰 FIRST, AN IMPORTANT NOTE: REGULAR DEPOSIT
At the end of October, I deposited my regular monthly contribution into my account, approximately 1% of my portfolio’s value. Investing regularly every month is the foundation of my strategy.
If you copy me and want to follow the same approach, add at least 1% of the amount you have in your copy of my portfolio. For example, if you have 5,000 euros in your copy, add at least 50 euros. If you can, you can add more. eToro will then automatically rebalance your copy so that it matches my portfolio as closely as possible. According to eToro, this can take up to 7 business days.
📉 HOW OCTOBER TURNED OUT
October was a weak month for my portfolio, whose value fell by 6.62% over the month. Since the start of the year, the portfolio is up 5.01%, and over the last 12 months it is up 2.07% (eToro, as of 31. 10. 2026).
Over the past five years, the portfolio has returned 152.65%, while the S&P 500 index returned 98.56% over the same period (eToro, as of 1. 11. 2026).
📊 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS AND MARKET VOLATILITY
The decline didn’t surprise me. I wrote earlier that I expected bigger swings ahead of the U.S. Congressional elections. These elections take place halfway through a president’s term, that is, every four years. This year, they fall on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Strategas Research Partners analyzed how the S&P 500 index (the 500 largest U.S. companies) performed in these kinds of years across 16 cycles from 1962 to 2022: ✅ The index’s largest decline during an election year averaged approximately 19%. ✅ In 11 of 16 cases, the decline was 15% or more. ✅ 12 months after the low point, the index was higher in all 16 cases, by an average of approximately 31%.
The past does not guarantee the future. However, I believe the statistics show that bigger declines are part of this period. I don’t see them as a reason to panic, but as an opportunity to buy.
🛒 WHAT I BOUGHT MORE OF IN OCTOBER
I bought the most additional shares of Alphabet ($GOOGL), bitcoin ($BTC), gold (iShares Physical Gold), JPMorgan ($JPM) and Ouster ($OUST).
Back in September, I adjusted my portfolio to be more defensive. I bought more McDonald’s ($MCD), Waste Management ($WM), Caterpillar ($CAT), Vistra ($VST) and Grab ($GRAB). I also continue to hold Microsoft ($MSFT).
₿ CRYPTO: BUYING ACCORDING TO PLAN
Bitcoin is trading at approximately 77 800 USD (eToro, 1. 11. 2026), which I consider an interesting level. From September 2026 to March 2027, I want to buy cryptocurrencies regularly, in smaller increments. These are mainly bitcoin, ethereum ($ETH), solana ($SOL) and hyperliquid ($HYPE).
Cryptocurrencies currently make up 4.7% of my portfolio (eToro, 1. 11. 2026). Gradually, I’d like to increase this share to 10 to 15%. If bitcoin were to fall to 60 000 USD, I could even see it reaching 20%.
Why now? I’ve been following so-called halving cycles over the long term. Approximately every four years, the number of newly created bitcoins is reduced, and the market moves through recurring phases of growth and decline. In my view, we’re at a stage when it makes sense to buy gradually, and without leverage.
🔐 CYBERSECURITY: A DECLINE I’M WATCHING
Cybersecurity companies have also become significantly cheaper. Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) shares fell 7.95% in October, and CrowdStrike ($CRWD) shares fell 5.50%. Fortinet ($FTNT) shares fell 24.56% in just the past week (eToro, as of 30. 10. 2026).
I hold shares in all three companies in my portfolio (eToro, as of 1. 11. 2026):
Palo Alto Networks – average purchase price 191,53 USD, position up 90,94%
CrowdStrike – average purchase price 121,65 USD, position up 105,65%
Fortinet – average purchase price 82,01 USD, position up 65,57%
Why cybersecurity in particular? The prospectus from Anthropic, the company developing Claude AI, illustrates this well. It filed it on October 26, 2026, ahead of its stock market listing. It is more than 300 pages long, with risks described on approximately 94 of them (Fortune, 26. 10. 2026). It discusses hackers’ misuse of artificial intelligence, as well as the possibility that advanced AI without sufficient protection could pose catastrophic risks to humanity.
Artificial intelligence is gradually becoming part of how companies, cities and robots are managed. An attack on these kinds of systems would have much more serious consequences than a hacked account. These companies were overpriced, but if they get a little cheaper, I want to increase my positions.
📌 IN SHORT
Regular deposit → approximately 1% of portfolio value every month
October → −6.62%, up 5.01% since the start of the year
Congressional elections → historically larger swings, but the market was always higher a year after the low point
Cryptocurrencies → regular purchases through March 2027, target of 10 to 15% of the portfolio
Cybersecurity → I’ll buy more if it declines further
Declines aren’t pleasant, but I’m sticking to the plan.
If you’d like to see how my portfolio is doing, you can follow or copy me.
This is not investment advice. I’m sharing how I invest my own money. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.