The complete list of Michael Burry's predictions. Has he finally had his supercrash?

Michael Burry is undoubtedly one of Wall Street's most famous figures. He was the loudest voice predicting the giant crash of 2008. And he made an incredible fortune. There's even a movie about his journey and prediction called "The Big Short", which I assume everyone here knows. The movie earned him huge popularity and his views started to carry even more weight especially among the retail. And now he's haunting us with his predictions again. Will he succeed?

Michael Burry warns again

Michael Burry's name gained notoriety especially after his big prediction in 2008. The film that was made about the event helped him afterwards outside Wall Street. The public and pundits alike are still devouring his statements and predictions of market behaviour, which he finds mainly in numbers. However, his fans (and especially his detractors) are beginning to feel that he is only profiting from his name and his one successful event, which was, of course, 2008. I don't want to diminish Michael Burry's qualities and expertise in the slightest; after all, he has made huge millions of dollars with his predictions, which is a testament to his knowledge.

Nevertheless, I will take the liberty of making a cross-section of his predictions for the next giant crash, which he has published in recent years. Will he see his supercrash - or MOAC (Mother of all crashes) as he calls such a phenomenon?

The history of Burry's predictions

2008

Let's go in order historically. Thus, we must start mainly with his prediction of the so-called "housing market crash". That is, the great mortgage crash of around 2008. As I have hinted (and as we all know), this prediction made him a huge fortune and shot him into the limelight as a brilliant soothsayer who saw something that others deliberately or mistakenly overlooked. The exact amount is said to be unknown, but estimates on the Internet agree on $200-400 million, with another $700 million for his fund's clients. That is, for those who didn't think he was crazy and didn't pull their money out.

Here Burry explains his thought process during the crisis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjt0cQrHwRw&t=209s

The 2008 crisis caused a clearly visible cog in the SAP500 chart, for example.

2015

Let's move a bit into the recent past. Michael Burry has become a household name and his views are being devoured by millions of people in the media. Although it is sometimes a little difficult to decipher what he actually meant to say with his post - especially on Twitter.

Burry's name floods the texts of economic newspapers and websites. I found this article from 2015, for example, whose title says it all: Housing Meltdown's Soothsayer Sees 'Terrific Stresses' in the Economy

Michael Burry, immortalized in 'The Big Short,' was terribly optimistic about America's economic outlook in a recent interview.

That is, an article showing that Burry is not entirely thrilled with the state of the American economy. So he was expecting more big problems for the economy, but they didn't quite materialize. It is true, however, that he mentions, for example, the Fed's easy money, which later really turned out to be a relatively big problem. But that is what a significant number of experts saw.

2017

Michael Burry Predicts an Imminent Stock Market Crash

That's the title of a 2017 article. Immediately the first paragraph looks rather drastic.

Michael Burry's predictions for 2017 are rather unpleasant. Unfortunately, they may also be right, because world events appear to be heading in exactly the direction Burry expects. Burry, who runs Scion Asset Management, LLC, says we can soon expect a global financial meltdown and World War 3.

We haven't seen a global economic meltdown or World War 3 yet. Although, with a tilt of one eye, one could say he predicted it five years in advance. This year, we may be a long way from it. But I don't think he thought of the situation we are in now when he made that prediction.

But the link between most of his predictions is a few points that made sense in the past and still make sense today. For example, that in his words the markets are growing in a completely "senseless" way. They are not growing as logic and indicators suggest they should. It's just that they have been growing for so long that it almost seems like "not a bug, it's a feature". Of course, only time will tell.

2019

Michael Burry of 'The Big Short' says he has found the next market bubble

What has Burry found this time? A bubble? Like I've ever heard that before...

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News in an email. When the massive inflows into passive vehicles reverse, "it will be ugly," he said.

So in this case, he points to retail as the culprits in the coming crash, investing recklessly in passive vehicles that drive forward the growth of everything. He continues:

"Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be," Burry said. "This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue."

Again, he likens the coming crash to 2008.

2021

Covid has more or less overreacted, the economy is starting to recover, and Burry comes out with a warning that the worst is yet to come. Well once again he has completely failed. 'Big Short' investor has dire warning for economy, comparing stock market state to pre-1929 and dot-com crashes

2022

Understandably, the situation since the beginning of this year plays into Burry's hands in that the crisis seems to have really arrived. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns stocks will crash and rallies won't last. Here's a roundup of his recent tweets and what they mean.

It's a fact that Burry warned of this crash as early as the summer of last year. He called it his iconic MOAC - the mother of all crashes. Indeed, then came one of the most brutal washouts of recent years. As if that wasn't enough for Burry. He has been pushing the envelope all spring and the last few months, claiming the worst is yet to come. But he can't take away the fact that this time he may have gotten it right.

In no way am I saying that I consider Burry (like many folks) a crazy doomsayer. Sometimes it really can feel like when someone keeps predicting a crisis, sooner or later they're going to get it right. But his predictions tend to be based on really good arguments and numbers that may indicate a crash. But perhaps Burry's communication is a bit misperceived, which can really come across as "crash here, crash there, I'll get it right one day".

I definitely recommend following his Twitter feed, which with a little patience can provide readers with some really interesting insights and information. It just has to be taken with a grain of salt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljburry

Of course, he deletes his tweets, so other accounts that follow his doings serve as an archive:

https://twitter.com/burryarchive

Finally, I'll add a nice explanatory video that describes Burry's actions during the mortgage crisis years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL-CZWc3RME

If you enjoy my articles and posts, feel free to throw a follow. Thanks! 🔥

Disclaimer: This is in no way an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and a few other analyses. Investing in the financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.

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