A well-known expert has presented a specific form of recession that will come in 2023

There is little doubt among investors and economists that a recession is coming. Now there is only speculation about its specific form. And this is what it will look like according to the famous Mark Tepper.

Mark Tepper, analyst at Strategic Wealth Partners and author of several books

Market expert Mark Tepper breaks down several economic issues plaguing the U.S. housing market and how they could lead to a rise in unemployment. And he says it also shows the shape of the recession to come.

Mark Tepper joined the show last Thursday to discuss the country's weak economy. The entire cryptocurrency market has lost many percentages due to bankruptcies, liquidity problems and the demise of the FTX exchange. Tepper predicts that the U.S. economy will be in recession by the end of 2023 and will be affected by the housing market. If you include all the incidentals - furniture, appliances and things like that, it's about 20% of our economy.


"It's unbelievable. It seems to me that it shows that the Fed can actually go higher and longer than most people expect. GDP last quarter was actually pretty decent. But I want to come back to the housing issue because we mentioned that housing is undoubtedly in a recession. Homebuilder sentiment is now at 35. And anytime it's below 50, we're looking at a housing recession. Housing is about 20% of our economy."

United States Nahb Housing Market Index. Source.

"Interestingly, if you take a chart of this homebuilder sentiment index and overlay it with a chart of the unemployment rate with a 12-month lag behind the unemployment rate, they are identical to each other. And this homebuilder sentiment number tells me that we could potentially see a 7% unemployment rate by the end of the year. That's a recession."

And what's the next prediction?

According to one, Nancy Lazar, the looming recession this year will be more reminiscent of the 1970s than the 2008-2007 downturn.

"People are too focused on 2008 and 2020. This is more like 1973, 74 and 2021," she said on television Monday.

Lazar predicted that the full impact of the recession will be felt in the second half of 2023, when the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve 's rate hikes will kick in. While the U.S. economy may be on a "roller coaster ride," Piper Sandler's chief global economist says we 're headed for a recession "like 1973, 74."

While the Fed is focusing on the headline PCE figure as it tries to get consumer prices back to 2%, Chairman Jerome Powell has previously told reporters that the core data is actually a better indicator of inflation. Both the core and headline data point to inflation that is well above the Fed's preferred 2% target, a worrying sign as the central bank is already raising interest rates at the fastest pace in a decade.

Disclaimer: This is by no means an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and other sources. Investing in the financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.

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