Alfred Gray

DISCLOSURE OF CPI

The US CPI release is scheduled for 14:30 today. Investors sell risk assets amid market uncertainty

Major markets in Europe and futures contracts in the US are nervous ahead of the April US CPI data released today. Investors are opting to unload high-risk positions. The data is likely to confirm the Fed's monetary policy. Currently, traders are pricing in a 25%...
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SHORTS - COMMODITY DEVELOPMENT

Oil -1.26% to US$72.78 per barrel.
Natural gas -1.01% to US$2.244 per mbtu.

Gold -0.28% to US$2037.2 per ounce.
Silver -0.01% to $25.895 per ounce.
Copper -1.03% to $3.8615 per pound.

Corn -0.38% to $5.825 per bushel.
Wheat -0.54% to $6.4 per bushel.

BIONTECH RISES ON BEST Q1 REPORT 📊

Shares of Biontech (BNTX.US), the company that co-developed revolutionary mRNA vaccines with Pfizer (PFE.US) during the pandemic, are up 5% as its Q1 report beat Wall Street analysts' estimates. The company beat expectations on both revenue and earnings. Year-over-year, of course, results deteriorated significantly, but not to the extent and at...
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SUMMARY 5.5

Wall Street indices ended yesterday's trading lower as renewed concerns over regional banks weighed on sentiment

The S&P 500 fell 0.72%, the Dow Jones moved 0.86% lower and the Russell 2000 fell 1.18%. The Nasdaq had a better performance, falling "only" 0.49%

PacWest Bancorp fell 50% and Western Alliance traded 38% lower on reports that those banks are exploring a...
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OVERVIEW OF COMMODITY PRICES 📊

Oil -0.1% to $68.53 per barrel.
Natural gas -1.57% to $2.136 per mbtu.

Gold +0.69% to $2,051.1 per ounce.
Silver +0.93% to $25.92 per ounce.
Copper +0.77% to $3.8745 per lb.

Corn -0.51% to $5.855 per bushel.
Wheat -0.78% to $6.3475 per bushel

Fed raises key interest rate by 25 bps as expected to 5.25%

FOMC (Fed) rate decision (upper bound) (May 3):
current value: 5.25%
market expectation: 5.25%
previous value: 5.00%

FOMC (Fed) rate decision (lower bound) (May 3):
current value: 5.00%
market expectation: 5.00%
previous value: 4.75%

SHORTS WHAT'S COMING UP TODAY AND PARADES!

European indices try to bounce up

FOMC rate decision to be released at 8pm

J. Powell's press conference will follow at 8:30 p.m.

We are also waiting for the US crude oil inventories

EMU HICP INFLATION

EMU inflation data for April:

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices YoY: 7.0% versus 6.9% expected and 6.9% previously

Core Harmonised Index of Consumer PricesYoY: 5.6% versus 5.6% expected and 5.7% previously

Eurozone inflation is still high and above the ECB's target. This puts the ECB in a difficult position regarding the tightening cycle. Today's PMI data...
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INFORMATION WINDOW 📊

The ISM manufacturing index in the US for April is rising!

ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 47.1 from March's 46.2

Price component moves back above the 50 point mark

US dollar strengthens slightly after the data

The indices remain at almost the same level after the release of the ISM data.

Morning shorts 📊 $MA

Another drop in $FRC due to speculation of insolvency!

Despite early reports of possible talks to support troubled First Republic Bank $FRC, the latest announcements from CNBC suggest that the bank will most likely file for insolvency.

INFORMATION WINDOW (European data, US PCE inflation.)

9:55 - Germany, unemployment for April. Expected: 5.6%. Previous: 5.6%

10:00 - Italy, GDP report for Q1 2023. Expected: 0.2% QoQ. Previous: -0.1% QoQ

10:00 - Germany, GDPreport for Q1 2023. Expected: 0.2% QoQ. Previous: -0.4% QoQ

11:00 - Eurozone, GDP report for Q1 2023. Expected: 0.2% QoQ. Previous: 0.0% QoQ

14:00 - Germany, CPI...
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$FRC Bank admitted that it suffered intense deposit outflows of $100 billion during the SVB-induced turmoil and came close to collapse. Even worse and more troubling, management refused to take and answer analysts' questions during the earnings call. Shares of First Republic Bank are trading more than 40% lower today as troubling media reports about the company continue to...
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US durable goods orders, higher than expected

Actual: 3.2% m/m. Expected: 0.8% m/m. Previous: -1.0% m/m

Durable 0.3% m/m. Expected: -0.2% m/m. Previous: -0.1% m/m

SHORT INFORMATION WINDOW

USA, GDP report for the first quarter.

GDP growth (annualized). Actual: 1.1%. Expected: 2.0%. Previous: 2.6%

Core PCE. Actual: 4.9% QoQ. Expected: 4.7% QoQ. Previous: 4.4% QoQ

US initial jobless claims. Actual: 230k. Expected: 249k. Previous: 245k.

US100 index loses, while the dollar strengthens slightly.