Good morning, investors.
What do you expect after a wild weekend in Russia? Do you think the events will put pressure back on fuels, raw materials and other important commodities? For now, I've read that the riot has hit the ruble and Russian stocks pretty hard, but I'm more interested in the implications globally.
Just don't let the wild weekend in Russia be just a premeditated move to exterminate the rats and move the experienced troops to Belarus for the eventual opening of a second front.
More on commodities. In my opinion, it appears that Russia's production is almost negligible in all items and can be replaced quickly enough and at an acceptable cost if necessary. Taken globally, of course, there are and will be individual turbulences, but these are very difficult to predict. The only lesson to be learnt from developments to date is that they are solvable.
It won't be so hot again;) Europe is still taking Russian commodities either directly or via India;) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fuels-russian-oil-gets-backdoor-entry-into-europe-via-india-2023-04-05/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-are-buying-russian-fossil-fuels/
Globally, the impacts so far are almost zero. Global capitalism has shown tremendous flexibility (remember how a few well-known morons shouted that without Russian gas we would freeze to death) and if Russia didn't have nuclear weapons nobody would be too concerned. It's obviously a huge disaster and I support Doctors Without Borders and Man in a Thousand as much as I can. But according to economic theory, any war contributes to overall economic growth. (It's logical when you think of the consumption of armies and how much of what is destroyed has to be replaced).
I agree, it is wars that lead humanity to progress. As horrible as it is, the greatest advances in military technology, technology and medicine are made in the war to post-war period.
The commodity markets will be busy at most, otherwise not. It's just a shame the rebellion ended as quickly as it began. The breakup of Russia would have been the ideal outcome of that "three day operation".
The ideal outcome of that war, unfortunately it didn't work out. But on the other hand, it has clouded the mindset of the Russians themselves and maybe things and people will start to move.
Well after a turbulent weekend in Russia and a failed revolt in the Chechen National Guard, I expect investors to be cautious. Russia is key to the markets because of its role as a major producer and exporter of energy commodities. Any internal political problems in Russia could therefore potentially threaten these supplies and create uncertainty in the markets.
