The crash? Quite an interesting take on how it would fit in nicely...


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The crash? Quite an interesting take on how it would fit in nicely...


The picture is very interesting. If I were to make an estimate based on the current PE and its history and current inflation, I would see a drop of some 25%. But that decline will ultimately depend a lot on whether we experience deflation, stagflation or a soft landing in the future. So we don't really know anything at the moment. Personally, I'm moving into government bonds for a year.
As you write, we don't know anything until time shows us what lies ahead. :)
According to that picture, that would mean a fall to somewhere around 2010 levels, maybe even earlier. There are two questions here. First, is the U.S. economy really worth the same as it was in 2010? And second, would investors really let it get there? In my view, the answer to both questions is no. After all, if it did, it would mean that the markets would erase 13 years of all the gains, which I think is unrealistic.
In fact, the markets would have been so attractively priced long ago that no one could resist, and I can't even imagine what would have to happen to bring those markets down that much. It would have to be armageddon in the world.
Armageddon, or nuclear war, for example, which I think is just as real as Armageddon, although the threat here is greater than ever. Otherwise, I agree with you. :)
S&P 500 +0.57% and Nasdaq +1.09% climbed as AI stocks like Broadcom rebounded. The Dow -0.10% edged lower.
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