How did Hindenburg's bet against Gautam Adani's Indian empire turn out?
In January 2023, Hindenburg Research published a report accusing Gautam Adani and his vast business empire of fraud going back decades. The consequences were immediate and devastating: the value of his companies plunged by more than $100 billion. What does the situation look like now?
Eighteen months on, Adani, who denies any wrongdoing, has recovered from much of the assault. A small American short seller, Hindenburg, revealed how much he made on a bet against the Indian billionaire: just over $4 million.
That amount, disclosed for the first time by Hindenburg, was published by the firm on its website on Monday, along with details of a letter it allegedly received from India's markets regulator.
According to the New York firm, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) accused Hindenburg's report on Adani of making inaccurate statements that were intended to "mislead the reader". CNN has asked both SEBI and the Adani Group for comment.
Hindenburg said in a statement that this was "an attempt to silence and intimidate those who expose corruption and fraud perpetrated by the most powerful individuals in India".
In a scathing report last year, Hindenburg accused the Adani Group of "brazen stock manipulation" and questioned the "sky-high" valuations of companies in the conglomerate, which deals in everything from ports to energy. Hindenburg said he had taken a short position in the group's shares, meaning he would benefit if their stock fell.
Hindenburg, named after the 1937 airship disaster, said in a statement on Monday that he made only $4.1 million in gross proceeds on positions against Adani from profits associated with shorting Adani from an unknown investor and about "$31,000 on his own short position in Adani's U.S. bonds."
"After deducting legal and research expenses (including time, salaries/compensation, and the cost of a two-year global investigation), we may be slightly above breakeven on our short position against Adani," he added.
The Hindenburg report caused one of the most dramatic earthquakes in Indian corporate history. The Adani Group immediately dismissed the allegations as "baseless" and "malicious", but it did not stop the stunning stock market plunge that followed.
Adani's personal wealth also suffered a huge blow, plunging by more than $80 billion in the month following the report's publication.
However, the group has since made an incredible recovery. Shares in most of Adani's ten publicly traded companies have risen this year, and the tycoon briefly returned to his position as Asia's richest man. He currently ranks second, behind his compatriot Mukesh Ambani, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) launched an investigation into the group after the Hindenburg report, but in January India's Supreme Court ordered the market regulator to quickly end its probe, saying no further investigations into the group were needed.
"In our view, SEBI has neglected its responsibility, and appears to be doing more to protect those who perpetrate fraud than to protect the investors who are victimised by it," Hindenburg said on Monday.
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