A colorful recession winner: How Sherwin-Williams paints a path to growth even without a real estate boom

As the U.S. housing market suffocates under the weight of high rates and low affordability, Sherwin-Williams $SHW is quietly consolidating its position as a leader. Whether it's home renovations, corporate construction or a sustainable approach to manufacturing, the firm is showing that even the traditional sector doesn't have to stagnate. Quite the opposite - it can grow when competition recedes.

Earnings per share (EPS) growth of over 11% in 2026

-Despite a weak new real estate market, Sherwin-Williams $SHW expects steady growth thanks to smart pricing, logistical optimization, and an expanding store network.

Weakening competition is playing into the company's hands

- Smaller players like Kelly-Moore Paints are disappearing from the market, and even giants like PPG are pulling back. Sherwin-Williams $SHW is thus winning new customers without the need for aggressive expansion.

Investing in technology and efficiency

- The company is modernizing its distribution network, digitizing sales processes and shortening lead times, which is winning favor with B2B clients and retail customers. At a time when others are cutting back, Sherwin is investing and growing.

Sustainability as a competitive advantage

- By 2030, Sherwin plans to source 50% of its electricity from renewable sources, reducing emissions and waste. This makes it more attractive to younger consumers and ESG investors.

Valuation remains attractive

- The stock currently trades at about 29x forward EPS, which is only slightly above the five-year average. Adjusted for future investment benefits, the valuation comes in below 26×, which is a fair valuation for a company with such a strong brand and growth.

Sherwin-Williams $SHW is a defensive growth title that benefits from competitive retreat, a strong brand and an effective strategy. Local manufacturing, smart expansion, and the ability to grow even without a real estate boom make it a solid foothold for long-term investors. Not every winner wears microchips - some hold the paintbrush and the paint.