NVIDIA results today after the market close: 3 possible scenarios for the stock

NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA will release its Q4 fiscal 2026 results today after the market close. This is one of the most important events of this earnings season and could affect not only the technology sector but the entire market for several weeks to months.

The analysts' consensus expects revenue around $65 billion (compared with $39.3 billion a year ago) and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 (vs. $0.89 YoY). The key segment again will be Data Center, where roughly $60 billion is expected due to continued demand for AI infrastructure and Blackwell chips. Equally important will be the outlook for fiscal 2027, which currently projects revenue around $311 billion.

Below I outline three possible scenarios depending on how the results compare to expectations:

1. Optimistic scenario – a significant beat

If NVIDIA significantly beats estimates, for example with revenue above $70 billion and EPS above $1.60, the market could react very positively. Such a result would confirm extremely strong demand for AI infrastructure, driven by the rapid ramp of the Blackwell platform and partnerships with hyperscalers.

In that case, the shares could rise 10–15% and lift the entire tech sector. This scenario would likely lead analysts to raise price targets and further strengthen the long-term AI investment narrative. On the other hand, it could also raise concerns about high valuation.

2. Neutral scenario – results roughly in line with expectations

If results match the consensus (around $65 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.53), the market might react with a modest decline of 2–5%, since expectations are already very high. Even with strong growth in the Data Center segment, a lack of a clear surprise could trigger profit-taking. This scenario could also occur as a combination of outcomes—some metrics well above estimates, others in line or slightly below.

The market would likely remain in a sideways trend in that case, and investors would wait for further catalysts, such as new products or announcements at the GTC conference.

3. Pessimistic scenario – disappointment versus expectations

If revenue falls below roughly $63 billion and EPS drops under $1.45, the reaction could be sharply negative. Shares could lose 15–20% in the short term and pull down the broader tech sector and major indices.

Such an outcome could indicate a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, margin pressure, or supply-chain problems. That could trigger a wider correction and call into question the pace of further growth in the AI sector.

My view:

I'm cautiously optimistic but prepared for increased volatility. NVIDIA's results could either reignite the rally in tech stocks or confirm the need for a short-term correction. The key will be commentary on AI demand and the outlook for the coming year.

What’s your estimate— a significant beat, or more likely a disappointment?

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