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Nearly 7% dividend on retail rents and AFFO growth of around 10% per annum

PB
Pavel Botek
· · 17 min read

At first glance, this real estate stock looks like a small, unassuming retail REIT that rides its rent and pays a standard dividend somewhere around 6-7%. But on closer inspection, we see a combination of above-sector-average AFFO growth, high occupancy, long lease terms, and a dividend that's backed by a conservative payout ratio while trading at a discount to book value and the multiples at which larger net-lease players sell.

For an investor looking for dollar income from the real estate sector but not looking to buy "anything with a yield", this is a typical example of this type of story: yields around 6.4-6.8%, AFFO growth approaching 10-12%, and valuations around 8.5x expected AFFO where comparable players typically stand at 12-13x. This looks like a value-growth mix, but it has downsides: concentration, some credit and sector risk, and a very low quality score in the Bulios/Octagon metrics that reminds us that this yield is not necessarily "safe."

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