SoFi down 52%: overblown panic, or was Muddy Waters right?
SoFi Technologies $SOFI reported second‑quarter 2026 results yesterday and rewrote practically all its own records. Revenue rose 43 percent to USD 1.22 billion. Net income climbed 61 percent to USD 156.6 million. The company added 1.1 million new members and a record 2.2 million products. It originated USD 14.8 billion in loans, 69 percent more than a year ago. And management also raised its full‑year revenue guidance.
Key points
SoFi reported the best quarter in its history, and the stock fell to its lowest level in a year.
Revenue up 43 percent and above consensus, yet management didn’t raise its profit guidance by a single dollar.
Record origination volumes of USD 14.8 billion, but marketing jumped 48 percent.
Crypto trading generated USD 134 million in revenue with a net contribution of USD 1.2 million.
Investors who bought in the December issue at USD 27.50 are now down 45 percent.
The stock reacted with a 9 percent drop to USD 15.23. During the day it traded as low as USD 14.88, its lowest level in the last twelve months. Year to date the stock is down roughly 42 percent, and from its 52‑week high of USD 32.73 it has lost more than half.
The disconnect is so large that it becomes a question of its own. A company that has met the so‑called rule of 40 for nineteen consecutive quarters, most recently hitting a score of 70, trades at 1.8 times equity. At the same time, it’s a company whose CEO bought 56 thousand shares at the beginning of March, worth about one million dollars, at an average of USD 17.88 per share. Since then the price has lost another 15 percent.
The market, however, wasn’t reacting to the numbers for the past quarter. It reacted to a single number that didn’t change. And that deserves more analysis than the entire press release.
Is SoFi a growth company that is buying its future at the expense of today’s margin, or a story that is breaking and the market was the first to realise it?