Ferrari doesn't want to sell more cars. So where will further profit growth come from?
Ferrari $RACE released its second-quarter results on Thursday, July 30, and raised its full-year outlook, at a time when rivals Lamborghini and Porsche were reporting worse year-on-year numbers due to tariffs and exchange rates. Revenue, operating profit and earnings per share all beat estimates, cash flow jumped by 39% and management raised its adjusted EPS target from at least €9.45 to at least €9.68. The stock responded on the day of the release by rising 3.1% to $397.73.
Key points
Ferrari delivered 128 fewer cars in the second quarter than last year and yet raised its full-year outlook.
Revenue per vehicle jumped to €484 thousand, 51% higher than in 2021.
Operating profit grew faster than EBITDA. The reason is not in operations, but in depreciation.
Deliveries to the Americas fell by 21%, to China by 32%. Nonetheless, the order book covers the whole of 2027.
The electric Ferrari Luce drew mockery and, according to the Financial Times, sold out its full-year allocation in less than two months.
And yet. On July 25 last year, the stock closed at $511.75, which remains its all-time high to this day. Today it is roughly a fifth lower. Since the start of the year, the stock is slightly in the red, while the US S&P 500 index had added around 9% by the end of July. Moreover, the journey to today's price has not been calm: as recently as mid-May, the stock was trading below $330, and its annual low is $312.51.
The root of this contradiction lies in a single day. On October 9, 2025, Ferrari held a Capital Markets Day, presented its plan to 2030, and the stock fell 15% in one afternoon. It was the worst day in the company's history since its IPO in 2015. It was not a disaster in the results. It was about the numbers that management wrote into the 2030 presentation, which the market deemed too modest.
Since then, the same pattern has repeated. Ferrari delivers a solid quarter, confirms or raises its outlook, analysts praise the margin, yet the stock has still not returned to where it was before Capital Markets Day. The company is earning more than ever, selling roughly the same number of cars as in 2022, and the market cannot decide whether this is proof of strength or a signal that the growth story is over.
So, after the latest results, what exactly is Ferrari: the best luxury brand on the stock market, temporarily overlooked by the market, or a company that has just hit the ceiling of its own exclusivity model?