Is SAP cheap or expensive at 200 euros?
SAP is trading at the same price as in January, a few days before it plunged 15% in a single day. Back then it was a falling knife; today it’s the comeback of the year. One number on Wednesday evening will decide whether history repeats itself or gets rewritten.
Key points
SAP is trading at the same price as in January, a few days before it lost 15% of its value in a single day
The stock fell all year, while one key company figure grew by 27%
The CEO talks about a 30% jump in development productivity and a hiring freeze
One bank has a target price of 120 EUR, another 250 USD—a spread like that for Europe’s No. 1 is unusual
Anyone holding a DAX index fund has SAP in it at a weight of around 9%, without having chosen to
Twice at 200 euros, twice a different story
SAP shares $SAP.DE closed at 199.53 EUR on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange’s Xetra on Monday and briefly rose above 203 EUR on Tuesday morning. To someone looking at the chart for the first time, it’s a boring number. To someone who’s watched it all year, it’s déjà vu. The stock stood at almost exactly this level in January, just before one disappointment in cloud contracts wiped out around 15% of its price in a single day and kicked off a six-month slide.
The slide didn’t end until July 23 at 127.50 EUR. Since then, the stock has gained around 55% and returned to where the decline began. Even so, it remains about 18% below its 52-week high of 244.30 EUR and roughly 30% below its all-time record of 283.50 EUR from February 2025. In January, Reuters calculated that the company had lost around 130 billion USD from its record market value of 344 billion EUR—more than the market capitalization of most companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 index.
Same price, two opposite stories. In January, Jefferies wrote that sentiment in the software sector had rarely been worse. Today, SAP is being talked about as Europe’s comeback of the year. Yet between those two moods there hasn’t been any change to the business that an ordinary investor could put a name to. What lies between them is a single number SAP will publish on Wednesday, October 21, at 22:05 Central European Summer Time.